Mads Eberhardt

Geopolitical tensions around U.S.–Iran developments drove volatility across equities and crypto, while clearer regulatory guidance reduced uncertainty in the U.S. crypto market. Stripe’s Tempo launch drew mixed reactions, and declining exchange balances point to continued accumulation of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The crypto market moved higher last week, supported by exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows and a reduced market focus on geopolitical risks, although those risks remain substantial. Meanwhile, regulatory uncertainty persists in the U.S. as the Clarity Act has stalled, while BlackRock’s staked Ethereum ETF has seen strong early demand.

Oil prices surged further after the conflict in the Middle East disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, raising inflation risks. Meanwhile, stablecoin supply reached a record high, corporate crypto buying slowed sharply, U.S. job losses surprised markets, and Bitcoin ETFs saw a second consecutive week of inflows.

U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran sparked a regional conflict and increased market uncertainty, strengthening the dollar and affecting rate expectations. Earlier, crypto markets saw strong ETF inflows, while developments in AI and onchain financial data signal continued progress in the digital asset ecosystem.

Trump’s renewed global tariffs revived trade-war uncertainty as U.S. fourth-quarter growth undershot expectations. Combined with rising concerns about AI disruption, this weighed on crypto. Elsewhere, BlackRock advanced plans for a staked Ethereum ETF, and BNP Paribas piloted a tokenized money market fund on Ethereum.

Inflation in the U.S. ticked down, but markets are not pricing in a March interest rate cut amid overall weak risk appetite. Danske Bank opened access to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs, and Boerse Stuttgart expanded its institutional crypto platform. Meanwhile, progress on the U.S. Clarity Act remains in focus.

Markets kept asking whether we had hit the bottom as crypto slid further, with Bitcoin hitting its lowest price since October 2024 last week. The move showed up across the market, from record trading volume in the largest Bitcoin ETF to unrealized losses piling up at an Ether treasury firm.

Crypto slid to its lowest level since last spring after Trump named Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, triggering a sharp selloff in gold and silver. U.S. crypto ETFs also saw net outflows in January. Meanwhile, the UK is moving closer to finalizing crypto rules, and Fidelity is nearing the launch of a dollar-denominated stablecoin.

The yen’s sudden strength revived carry-trade unwind fears and rattled crypto, while the odds of a U.S. government shutdown added another layer of uncertainty. We also look at UBS edging toward client crypto trading and the NYSE’s push into tokenization, both signs that institutions are moving closer to digital asset markets.

The crypto market sold off after Trump revived tariff threats with Greenland as the focal point, but sentiment partially recovered when he later pulled the threat back after reportedly reaching some form of agreement. U.S. regulatory momentum also stalled as the Clarity Act bill was delayed, while European banks continued to push into crypto.

Crypto hit fresh all-time highs in 2025, then faded into year-end as risk appetite cooled. Corporate treasury buying and U.S.-listed ETFs supported demand, while rate cuts helped—but the four-year cycle narrative and rising uncertainty weighed on prices. Despite the late-year pullback, adoption in 2025 was exceptional.

JPMorgan tokenized a money market fund on Ethereum, while SoFi launched a bank-issued U.S. dollar stablecoin. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation came in softer than expected in November, but crypto is still on track to end the year lower than it started.

The Federal Reserve delivered its third 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%, while U.S. regulators quietly endorsed large-scale tokenization and a new stablecoin use case emerged, setting the tone for crypto as risk sentiment seemingly softens into year-end, both within and beyond the crypto market.

Markets await Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision with a 25-basis-point cut widely expected, while Fed commentary will also be key. European banks, including Danske Bank and SEB, plan the euro stablecoin “Qivalis” for 2026, and, finally, Vanguard now permits crypto ETF trading.

Fears of a Japanese rate hike triggered a 6.28% Bitcoin selloff, as markets worry investors may have to unwind positions funded in the Japanese currency. Meanwhile, Klarna announced a dollar stablecoin for 2026, and S&P downgraded Tether to its lowest rating. All eyes are now on next week’s interest-rate decision by the U.S. central bank.

Tech stocks dragged crypto lower as AI valuation fears sent the S&P 500 down 1.62% and NASDAQ 100 tumbling 2.63%, pushing Bitcoin to $80,530 and Ethereum to $2,615 before weekend buying offered relief. U.S. crypto ETFs are on pace for record monthly outflows while MSCI considers excluding crypto treasury firms from its indexes.

The 43-day U.S. government shutdown ended with an estimated 1.5 percentage point hit to U.S. GDP. Bitcoin slid to six-month lows, and crypto ETFs saw a record $2 billion in outflows as risk sentiment deteriorated across both crypto and equities.

Digital assets faced pressure last week as the longest U.S. government shutdown in history rattled markets, with the U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs seeing major outflows. Ripple secured $500 million at a $40 billion valuation, while a majority of hedge funds now hold crypto.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a trade deal delaying China’s rare-earth export controls for one year. Newly launched Solana ETFs drew $199.2 million in their first week, while the Fed cut rates by 0.25% and announced it will end quantitative tightening next month.

Markets anticipate a Fed rate cut on Wednesday, while U.S.–China trade tensions ease ahead of Thursday’s Trump–Xi summit. JPMorgan’s move to accept Bitcoin and Ether as institutional loan collateral signals adoption, while Japan launches its first regulated yen-backed stablecoin with ambitious growth targets.

U.S.-China trade tensions showed signs of easing as Trump signaled openness to tariff reductions. Japan's top three banks reportedly plan a yen stablecoin, while gold hit record highs, outperforming Bitcoin 59.9% to 17.6% year-to-date amid market volatility.

Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods triggered the largest crypto liquidation in history, exceeding 19.3 billion dollars, as cryptocurrencies tumbled. Gold, on the other hand, served as a safe haven. Markets partially regained lost ground following Trump’s U-turn on Sunday.

Bitcoin hit a record $125,700 as the Fed's rate cut, strong ETF inflows, and October seasonality drove markets higher despite the U.S. government shutdown. Swift's blockchain adoption with Consensys and CME's upcoming 24/7 crypto futures trading signal institutional embrace of digital assets.

Crypto markets experienced a sharp leverage washout as traders unwound positions following the Fed rate cut, while nine major European banks announced a euro stablecoin consortium and Morgan Stanley revealed plans to offer retail crypto trading, marking traditional finance's strategic embrace of digital assets.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, yet long-term Treasury yields rose, creating opposing forces on crypto markets. The SEC introduced streamlined ETF approval standards potentially qualifying 12 cryptocurrencies, while UK-US officials discussed regulatory alignment to boost digital asset adoption.

Central banks take center stage this week as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve’s first potential rate cut of 2025 despite rising inflation, while BlackRock explores tokenizing ETFs on public blockchains, major banks in Hong Kong pursue stablecoin licenses, and crypto firms enjoy strong public market debuts.

Markets face mounting uncertainty as disappointing U.S. jobs data pushes unemployment to 4.3% while Trump's WLFI token commands a $20 billion valuation despite lack of products. Stripe launches its own blockchain for stablecoins amid community criticism, and Ethereum secures $40 million for institutional infrastructure.

NVIDIA's mixed earnings impacted crypto sentiment while the U.S. government published GDP data on blockchains for the first time. Ethereum's staking exit queue hit $5 billion as ETF flows favored Ethereum over Bitcoin in August. Short-term, markets will likely watch Trump's tariff ruling, Friday's jobs data, and a token launch for risk signals.

Wyoming is launching the United States’ first state-issued stablecoin, while the ECB is considering a blockchain-based euro, as USD stablecoins outnumber EUR stablecoins by a factor of 590 to 1. A dormant Bitcoin whale’s partial rotation of $2.7 billion into Ethereum is pushing Ether to new highs above $4,950.

Bitcoin hit $124,300 on benign consumer inflation before crashing as producer prices jumped, stoking tariff fears. Stripe and Circle unveiled independent blockchains, while Japan's first yen stablecoin is expected to launch this autumn. Meanwhile, Norway's wealth fund boosted indirect Bitcoin exposure 83% during the second quarter.

Ethereum hits $4,340, a four-year high, as Trump opens the $9 trillion 401(k) market to crypto and three firms hold 2.1 million Ether. The SEC clarifies liquid staking rules, and S&P Global issues its first DeFi credit rating, signaling unprecedented institutional validation for digital assets.

U.S. jobs data shocked markets as July added only 73,000 positions versus 100,000 expected, with May and June revised down by 258,000 combined. As recession fears mounted, Trump fired the labor statistics chief while his tariffs hit 60+ countries. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw record July inflows before August's sharp reversal.

U.S. Congress delivers historic crypto wins with Trump signing the GENIUS stablecoin act and passing landmark digital asset bills. Ethereum ETFs attract record $3.28 billion July inflows while BlackRock files for staking approval. Despite price rallies, Ethereum network fees remain subdued, signaling reduced onchain activity and less Ether burning.

Bitcoin rises to $122,900, driven by a tech rally and corporate treasury strategies. Congress launches “Crypto Week” with key bills, while ETFs attract large net inflows in July, with $3.38 billion to Bitcoin and $1.1 billion to Ethereum. However, markets face uncertainty as Trump announces 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting August 1.

Trump's Big Beautiful Bill passes without the crypto tax reforms the industry hoped for, while its projected $3.3 trillion deficit impact, among other things, sends the dollar plunging 11.7% against the euro this year. Circle and Ripple pursue bank charters as markets brace for Wednesday's U.S. tariff deadline.

Middle East ceasefire propels Bitcoin up 5.8% and Ethereum up 7.9% as geopolitical risks fade. The first U.S. staked crypto ETF nears launch, signaling SEC acceptance of staking rewards, while mortgage giants prepare to accept crypto. Stablecoin supply surges by $48.85 billion, or 24%.

Geopolitical tensions rattled crypto markets as US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites triggered a weekend selloff, sending Bitcoin to $98,400. Meanwhile, the Senate's GENIUS Act passage sparked optimism in the stablecoin sector while record Ethereum staking signals strong holder conviction.