Firi Weekly: Tumult in the Equity Market

Firi Weekly: Tumult in the Equity Market

  • Crypto Outperformed Technology Stocks in July:
    • While the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.9% in July amid geopolitical tensions and equity-market uncertainty, Bitcoin gained 7.4% and Ethereum rose 18.6%. During the month, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $172.8 million in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs attracted $347.4 million, suggesting renewed but still modest demand for crypto assets from traditional investors.
  • AI Hedge Fund Forced Into Major Asset Sale:
    • Situational Awareness LP, the AI-focused hedge fund run by 25-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner, was forced to liquidate most of its public-equity positions after margin calls triggered by steep declines in AI-related stocks. The roughly $20 billion fund sold holdings to Citadel, contributing to sharp market volatility before the affected shares partially recovered.
  • Coldcard Wallet Vulnerability Leads to Bitcoin Theft:
    • Thousands of Bitcoin addresses secured with Coldcard hardware wallets were reportedly drained after attackers exploited predictably generated recovery seed phrases. Coldcard released a software update and advised users to move funds to newly generated wallets. The incident challenges assumptions about hardware-wallet security, although it did not affect one of the industry’s largest hardware wallet providers.
  • Circle Becomes Leading Blockchain Patent Holder:
    • Circle, issuer of the USDC stablecoin, acquired nearly 1,000 patents related to blockchain, financial services, insurance, and other sectors from IBM. Financial terms were not disclosed. The acquisition makes Circle the world’s largest holder of blockchain-related patents and indicates IBM is reducing its focus on blockchain following the closure of projects such as TradeLens.

Last Week’s Big Three

AI-Focused Hedge Fund Forced to Sell: Last week was eventful for equity markets. Over the past few years, 25-year-old hedge fund manager Leopold Aschenbrenner has developed a strong following after his fund, Situational Awareness LP, generated substantial returns, mainly from AI-related stocks. At the end of May, the fund managed roughly $20 billion, making it one of the world's largest hedge funds by assets under management.

During July, however, several of the fund's largest positions, particularly in AI-related stocks, fell sharply. This resulted in margin calls. A margin call can occur when a fund invests with borrowed money and uses its assets, often the same or similar equities, as collateral. If the value of that collateral falls below a required level, lenders, typically investment banks, may demand additional collateral. If the borrower cannot provide it, the lenders can force the fund to sell its positions.

Following the margin calls, Situational Awareness LP sold most of its positions in publicly listed companies to another major hedge fund, Citadel. The sale created volatility and uncertainty in equity markets, as many of the stocks held by Situational Awareness LP initially fell sharply before recovering after the fund completed its sales. However, the spillover into the crypto market was limited.

Coldcard Wallet Vulnerability Leads to Bitcoin Theft: Last week and at the beginning of this week, hackers reportedly drained thousands of Bitcoin addresses secured with Coldcard, a Bitcoin-only hardware wallet.

A hardware wallet stores the private key needed to move funds offline on a physical device. In this case, however, attackers discovered that some recovery seed phrases had been generated predictably. A seed phrase acts as a backup that can restore access to funds if the hardware wallet is lost. Coldcard has released an update intended to address the issue and recommends that users move their Bitcoin to newly generated addresses. At the time of writing, an estimated approximately 1,816 Bitcoin, worth $117.6 million, have been stolen through this method.

Hardware wallets have long been considered one of the safest ways to hold digital assets outside a centralized platform, making this a notable and unexpected attack. Fortunately, the incident did not affect one of the industry's largest hardware wallet providers, as Coldcard is still a relatively small provider of hardware wallets.

Circle Acquires IBM’s Blockchain Patents: Circle, the issuer of USDC, the second-largest stablecoin, announced last week that it had acquired nearly 1,000 patents from IBM. The patents cover blockchain, financial services, insurance, and several other sectors. The acquisition makes Circle the world’s largest holder of blockchain-related patents. The financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

IBM has previously been active in blockchain technology. Among other initiatives, it partnered with Danish shipping group Maersk to develop TradeLens, a blockchain-based logistics platform that was later shut down. IBM’s decision to sell its blockchain patent portfolio suggests that the technology may no longer be a strategic priority for the company.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Nasdaq-100 vs. Bitcoin and Ethereum, Year-to-Date Price Performance

Firi illustration

July was a difficult month for the technology-heavy Nasdaq-100, which fell by approximately 6.9%.

Several factors may have contributed to the decline, including an escalation of the war in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding Situational Awareness LP, and a market that may have been overbought, as the Nasdaq-100 was already up 18.5% year to date at the beginning of July.

Bitcoin and Ethereum, by contrast, gained 7.4% and 18.6% in July, respectively. These gains came, however, after a weak first half of the year. At the beginning of July, Bitcoin was down 33.1% year to date, while Ethereum was down 47.0%.

Chart 2: Monthly U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Net Flow

Firi illustration

July was a positive month for the U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with both recording aggregate net inflows after net outflows in May and June. During the month, the Bitcoin ETFs attracted net inflows of $172.8 million, while Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $347.4 million.

This means the funds were net buyers rather than net sellers during the month. It may indicate that more traditional investors, who commonly use ETFs to gain market exposure, increased their crypto holdings. However, the inflows remained modest relative to the earlier outflows.

A Number to Remember

1,638 bitcoins

Last week, Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy and the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, sold 1,638 bitcoins for $104.7 million. The sale reduced the company’s Bitcoin holdings to 842,138 bitcoins, worth approximately $54.4 billion.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

  • What Happens in the Middle East? News continues to emerge from the Middle East, where the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached a lasting peace agreement. Further developments could continue to have a significant effect on markets.
  • Will the Clarity Act Pass? As we discussed in last week’s Firi Weekly, the coming days and weeks will be critical if the U.S. Clarity Act is to pass this year. There have been few positive developments over the past week, making passage appear increasingly unlikely. We are continuing to follow the situation closely.
  • How Will Equity Markets Perform? We are monitoring equity markets after a volatile July. Their performance may provide insight into broader investor risk appetite and, in turn, how conditions could affect the crypto market.
Portrait of Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst at Firi.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 06/08/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.