Firi Weekly: The Largest IPO

U.S.–Iran Framework Deal Lifts Markets:
- The U.S. and Iran announced a framework agreement last Sunday to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with signing expected Friday. This led to lower oil and gas prices, which is generally positive for crypto markets, but unresolved issues including nuclear terms and sanctions relief leave a 60-day negotiation window and significant uncertainty.
SpaceX IPO Draws Speculative Capital:
- SpaceX went public last Friday in the largest IPO ever, pricing at $135 and a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation. Shares rose 19% to $160.95 on day one and reached $201.80 by Tuesday, implying a valuation near $2.655 trillion and highlighting strong demand for AI-linked equities.
Japan Advances Crypto Financial-Instrument Bill:
- Japan’s lower house passed a bill last Thursday to classify cryptocurrencies as financial instruments, leaving approval by the upper house as the final legislative step. The change, expected to take effect next year, would bring stricter market rules while enabling products such as crypto ETFs and potentially increasing institutional adoption.
Strategy and BitMine Resume Crypto Buying:
- Strategy bought 1,587 bitcoins for $100 million, bringing its holdings to 846,842 bitcoins worth about $54.3 billion. BitMine bought 76,881 Ether for $136 million and now holds about 5.62 million Ether worth $9.76 billion, easing concern after Strategy’s prior 32-bitcoin sale pressured markets.

Last Week's Big Three

The U.S. and Iran Reach a Deal to End the War: Last Sunday, the U.S. and Iran announced that they had reached an agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to both sides. The framework agreement is expected to be signed on Friday. The deal had been widely awaited after the war broke out at the end of February and a ceasefire was reached in early April.

The announcement was positive for markets, including crypto. A significant share of global oil and gas supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz. During the war, that flow was disrupted, which pushed oil and gas prices sharply higher and added to inflation pressure worldwide. Higher inflation has made central banks more cautious about cutting interest rates. Some have even raised rates, including the European Central Bank (ECB), which increased the euro interest rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage points, last week.

Higher interest rates are generally negative for crypto because they make lower-risk investments more attractive to investors. After the deal was announced on Sunday, oil and gas prices fell sharply, while crypto prices rose, with Bitcoin trading as high as $67,250 this week and Ethereum reaching $1,848.

Still, the agreement appears fragile. Reports suggest there is no firm deal yet on nuclear weapons, sanctions relief, and other major negotiation points. Final talks on a full agreement appear to have a 60-day window after the framework agreement is signed, so meaningful uncertainty remains.

Japan Moves Closer to Recognizing Crypto as Financial Instruments: Japan’s parliament moved closer last week to classifying cryptocurrencies as financial instruments. A bill to make the change passed the lower house on Thursday. It now needs approval from the upper house before it can likely take effect next year.

Classifying crypto as financial instruments would subject the market to stricter rules in Japan. It would also open the door to new products such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Clearer regulation is also expected to support broader crypto adoption in Japan, especially among traditional financial institutions.

The Largest Bitcoin and Ethereum Holders Are Buying Again: Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, bought 1,587 bitcoins last week for a total cost of $100 million. The purchase was announced on Monday this week. BitMine, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, meanwhile bought 76,881 Ether last week for a total cost of $136 million. Strategy now holds 846,842 bitcoins, worth about $54.3 billion. BitMine holds around 5.62 million Ether, worth about $9.76 billion.

The purchases came only a few weeks after Strategy made its second-ever Bitcoin sale, selling 32 bitcoins worth $2.5 million. That sale unsettled the market and pushed crypto prices lower. It is no secret that continued buying from Strategy and BitMine is positive for the market and was likely one of the main reasons crypto performed well last week, whereas future selling would have the opposite effect.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: SpaceX Stock Price

Last Friday, SpaceX, the U.S. aerospace and artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk, went public in what was the largest IPO of all time. The IPO priced at $135 per share, implying a valuation of roughly $1.77 trillion.

The stock closed its first trading day at $160.95, up about 19%. It continued to rise this week and ended Tuesday at $201.80, implying a valuation of roughly $2.655 trillion. That puts SpaceX in the same broad valuation range as Amazon and Microsoft.

The move looks fairly speculative and suggests that risk capital is still present in the markets, though not necessarily in crypto. As we have argued before, AI-related equities, including the SpaceX IPO, appear to have attracted capital that might otherwise have flowed into crypto.

Chart 2: Total Stablecoin Supply

In recent weeks, the total stablecoin supply has declined while the crypto market has also weakened. Supply has fallen from an all-time high of about $322.8 billion in mid-May to $315.3 billion today.

Historically, crypto market performance and stablecoin supply have tended to move together. When the crypto market rises, stablecoin supply often follows, and the same has usually been true in reverse. Over the past year or so, that relationship has become less clear. For instance, this time, the crypto market has fallen meaningfully, but the decline in stablecoin supply has been relatively modest. This may suggest that stablecoins are increasingly being used outside the crypto market.

A Number to Remember

$319.3 million

The U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $319.3 million last week. This means investors, often more traditional investors who access Bitcoin through ETFs, sold more than they bought during the week.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

How Will SpaceX Perform After Its IPO? SpaceX’s share-price performance may tell us how speculative markets still are, and whether some of that risk-seeking capital could eventually move toward crypto.
Will Strategy and BitMine Keep Buying? We are watching whether Strategy and BitMine continue to buy Bitcoin and Ether, respectively. Continued purchases would likely be positive for the market. Sales from either company would likely be negative.
What Happens Next with the U.S.–Iran Deal? There are still major uncertainties around the agreement between the U.S. and Iran, and several issues need to be resolved before it can become more durable. These developments could affect markets in the near term, so we are watching them closely.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 19/06/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.