Firi Weekly: A Struggling Crypto Market

SpaceX IPO May Drain Crypto Capital:
- SpaceX filed for an IPO last week and may seek up to $75 billion at a valuation above $2 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO ever. Expected as soon as June, the listing could attract risk-on capital that might otherwise flow into crypto, especially alongside possible OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs later this year.
Bitcoin ETFs See May Outflows:
- The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $1.07 billion in net outflows so far in May, meaning investors sold more ETF shares than they bought. These products are often held by traditional investors, suggesting this group has reduced its crypto exposure during the past few weeks.
European Banks Back Euro Stablecoin:
- Qivalis, the planned euro-denominated stablecoin, added 25 partner banks last week, including Nordea, Jyske Bank, Handelsbanken, and Swedbank. The consortium, first announced in September 2025 with banks such as Danske Bank and SEB, expects launch in the second half of 2026 and could give euro stablecoins a stronger distribution network.
Ethereum Foundation Faces Researcher Exodus:
- At least nine Ethereum Foundation researchers have left or plan to leave in 2026, following criticism last year that the organization was too slow on Ethereum’s technical challenges and promotion. Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin said the foundation has become more execution-focused, but the departures still raise questions about its future role.

Last Week’s Big Three

European Stablecoin Adds 25 New Partner Banks: The upcoming euro-denominated stablecoin Qivalis announced 25 additional partner banks last week. The project was first announced in September last year as a consortium of nine major European banks, including Danske Bank and SEB. A few more banks had joined since then, but last week marked a much larger expansion, with 25 new European banks added to the group. These include the Nordic banks Nordea, Jyske Bank, Handelsbanken, and Swedbank. The stablecoin is expected to launch sometime in the second half of 2026.

Euro-denominated stablecoins have almost no meaningful adoption today, which makes Qivalis an interesting project to follow. The consortium has a very strong distribution network, and if any project has a realistic chance of building traction for a euro stablecoin, it is likely this one. Each additional European bank strengthens that network further.

Researchers Leave the Ethereum Foundation: The Ethereum Foundation, the non-profit organization that supports much of the development and research behind Ethereum, has had what can fairly be described as a chaotic period. A large share of its core researchers have either left or are planning to leave in the near future, with at least nine researchers having left so far in 2026.

The departures follow criticism that began in earnest early last year. The main concern was that the Ethereum Foundation had not been proactive enough in addressing Ethereum’s technical challenges, and that it had not done enough to promote Ethereum as both a cryptocurrency and a blockchain ecosystem.

Last week, Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin addressed the researcher departures and the foundation’s future role on X. He argued that the foundation has become better suited to execution and is now more efficient. He also emphasized that the Ethereum Foundation has limited resources, represents only a small part of the wider Ethereum ecosystem, and is likely to become even smaller over time. Buterin also outlined what he believes Ethereum should focus on, including scalability, decentralization, and resilience.

The Ethereum Foundation remains important to Ethereum’s development, and it does appear to have improved in some ways over the past year. Still, an important question remains: why have so many employees left in 2026 alone, and is that ultimately a positive or negative signal?

SpaceX Files for IPO: SpaceX, the Elon Musk-founded aerospace and artificial intelligence company, filed for an IPO last week after months of rumors. The company is reportedly looking to raise up to $75 billion, possibly at a valuation above $2 trillion. If that happens, it would become the largest IPO in history. The IPO is likely to take place in June.

At first glance, this may not seem directly relevant to crypto. But it could matter. The SpaceX IPO, together with possible IPOs from AI companies OpenAI and Anthropic later this year, could attract a large amount of risk-on capital. Some of that capital may already be invested in crypto, or might otherwise have flowed into the crypto market. That makes the listings a potential headwind for crypto and a risk worth watching.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq-100 Price Performance, Year-to-Date

With regard to other asset classes attracting some of the risk-on capital that would otherwise have gone into crypto, this already seems to have been the case so far this year. The technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 has significantly outperformed Bitcoin, and even more so the broader crypto market. Bitcoin is down 15.8% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq-100 is up 18.6%.

This outperformance appears to have been driven mainly by momentum in AI-related stocks, including semiconductor and energy companies, as well as generally strong corporate earnings. At the same time, the crypto market has lacked a clear short-term narrative strong enough to encourage investors to add exposure, or even to stay invested. That may have pulled capital away from crypto and into AI-related stocks with a seemingly better short-term narrative.

A Number to Remember

$1.07 billion

The U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen $1.07 billion in net outflows so far in May. This means investors have sold about $1.07 billion more of these Bitcoin ETFs than they have bought. These ETFs are often held by more traditional investors, so the outflows suggest that this group has reduced its crypto exposure during May.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

Will the SpaceX IPO Pull Capital Out of Crypto? If SpaceX is going public in June, the final IPO date will likely be announced soon. We will be watching initial investor interest in the listing, as well as the crypto market’s first reaction.
What Happens Next in the Middle East? There has been a lot of back and forth on the war in the Middle East over the past few weeks, especially around whether a longer-term agreement may be close between the U.S. and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other. Either escalation or de-escalation could have a meaningful impact on markets, including crypto, so this remains important to watch.
Will Traditional Investors Return to Crypto? With U.S. crypto ETFs having seen substantial outflows so far in May, we will be watching whether those outflows continue or reverse into inflows, as that may indicate whether traditional investors are still reducing exposure or now see enough upside in crypto to start buying again.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 29/05/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.