Firi Weekly: Is This Satoshi Nakamoto?

US-Iran Conflict Keeps Oil Markets on Edge:
- A last-minute two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran prevented strikes on key Iranian infrastructure and followed severe disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the negotiations during the weekend failed to produce a lasting agreement, and the U.S. has since imposed a targeted naval blockade on Iran-linked vessels. The situation remains unresolved and continues to weigh on global energy prices and financial markets, including the crypto market.
The New York Times Claims Satoshi Identity:
- The New York Times published an investigation suggesting that cryptographer Adam Back could be the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, based largely on similarities in writing style. The claim remains unproven and widely disputed. However, attention has shifted to the estimated 1.1 million bitcoins attributed to Satoshi, representing about 5.5 percent of total Bitcoin supply and valued at roughly 81.4 billion dollars. Any movement of these funds would likely have a significant market impact.
Hong Kong Advances Regulated Stablecoin Market:
- Hong Kong has issued its first stablecoin licenses under a regulatory framework introduced in August 2025. The framework requires full reserve backing, clear redemption mechanisms, and strong governance standards. This is expected to enable the launch of regulated Hong Kong dollar stablecoins and support broader institutional adoption of crypto assets.
Morgan Stanley Enters Bitcoin ETF Market Late:
- Major U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley has launched its first U.S. Bitcoin ETF, entering the market more than two years after the first spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved. Despite the delayed entry, the product recorded 30.6 million dollars in net inflows on its first day.

Last Week’s Big Three

From Ceasefire to Naval Blockade: Late Tuesday, April 7, U.S. President Donald Trump’s extended deadline expired on his threat to strike key Iranian energy infrastructure unless Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. This route is critical for global oil and gas flows, and its near closure since the start of the conflict has pushed energy prices sharply higher.

Just over an hour before the deadline, the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire. Reports indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen during this period, although that has only partially materialized, with limited vessel traffic compared to pre-war levels. The two sides also agreed to hold talks in Islamabad over the weekend to negotiate a longer-term deal.

Despite extended discussions involving U.S. Vice President JD Vance and others in Islamabad, no agreement was reached. Vance stated that the U.S. had presented its best and final offer, suggesting that a deal could still be possible.

Then, on Sunday, President Trump announced a naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that if not all vessels can pass through, then none should. The blockade, implemented at the start of the week, targets ships traveling to or from Iranian ports. The move appears aimed at increasing pressure on Iran to reach a long-term agreement.

Iran has strongly opposed the blockade. For now, the temporary ceasefire remains in place, but uncertainty remains high, and that uncertainty continues to weigh negatively on markets, including crypto.

The New York Times Claims to Have Identified Satoshi Nakamoto: The New York Times published a detailed article last week claiming it may have identified Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Satoshi Nakamoto is the individual or group that created Bitcoin in January 2009 and has not been heard from since April 2011.

The article argues that Satoshi’s writing style closely matches that of British cryptographer Adam Back, a well-known figure in the Bitcoin community. Back has denied that claim, and the evidence presented is far from sufficient to establish that he is, in fact, Satoshi.

Ultimately, there is only one definitive way to prove Satoshi’s identity, which is discussed further in the second chart. It is extremely unlikely that we will ever know who Satoshi is, but if that were to change, it could have negative implications for the market, depending on how it unfolds.

Hong Kong Grants First Stablecoin Licenses: Hong Kong issued its first stablecoin licenses last week to Anchorpoint Financial and The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited. Anchorpoint Financial is a joint venture involving Standard Chartered Bank’s Hong Kong branch, Animoca Brands, and Hong Kong Telecommunications, while the latter is HSBC’s local entity.

These firms will be regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), following the implementation of Hong Kong’s stablecoin regime on August 1, 2025. The framework requires issuers to obtain licenses and meet standards related to reserve backing, redemption, and governance.

According to the HKMA, the licensed issuers are expected to begin operations in the coming months. This is a positive development for both the stablecoin market and the broader crypto ecosystem, as more traditional currencies—including the Hong Kong dollar—become available in stablecoin form.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Oil Price

Oil prices serve as a useful proxy for how markets assess developments in the Middle East conflict, particularly the implications of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. A partial or full reopening of the strait would likely signal de-escalation and more stable energy flows, resulting in lower oil prices.

Oil prices have declined in recent weeks, likely reflecting market expectations tied to the current ceasefire and the possibility of continued negotiations toward a long-term agreement. While traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels, activity has increased meaningfully compared to a few weeks ago. Some oil shipments have also been rerouted through alternative channels, contributing to greater supply and lower prices, which, in turn, is positive for risk-on assets, including crypto. This may be one of the main reasons the crypto market increased last week and so far this week. This is positive if it continues, but ultimately depends on how the conflict develops.

The chart tracks Brent crude oil, a global benchmark used to price roughly two-thirds of the world’s traded oil supply.

Chart 2: Satoshi’s Estimated Bitcoin Holdings

Following the New York Times investigation into Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity, this chart highlights the approximately 1.1 million bitcoins believed to be associated with Nakamoto. This represents about 5.5 percent of total Bitcoin supply and is currently valued at around $81.4 billion.

There has been no activity in these wallets for around 15 years, which creates uncertainty as to whether Nakamoto still has access. If they do still have access, and a sale of these bitcoins were ever to occur, it would likely have a negative impact on the market in the short term, given the size of the holdings.

This also points to the only definitive way to verify Satoshi’s identity: demonstrating control over these bitcoins. No one has done so yet, and it is unlikely to ever happen.

A Number to Remember

$30.6 million

Morgan Stanley launched its first U.S. Bitcoin ETF last Wednesday, more than two years after the initial wave of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs entered the market. Despite the delayed entry, the fund recorded net inflows of $30.6 million on its first day.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

Developments in the Middle East: Near-term price movements in the crypto market will likely be heavily influenced by developments in the Middle East. Key factors include whether the ceasefire is extended, whether new negotiations take place, and activity levels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Is Time Running Out for the U.S. Clarity Act? There has been limited progress recently on the U.S. Clarity Act, which aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for crypto. If it is not passed before the summer, it may be delayed until after the U.S. midterm elections in November, which would be a negative outcome for the crypto market, as it has been awaiting the regulatory clarity the bill is intended to bring to the industry.
If Nakamoto’s Bitcoins Were to Move: Although these bitcoins have remained untouched for more than 15 years—and are, in all likelihood, never going to be moved—they still represent a risk. Any movement would indicate that Satoshi still has access and could potentially sell, which would pose a significant short-term price risk for Bitcoin.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 15/04/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.