Firi Weekly: Was That the Bottom? Markets Ask

Crypto Selloff Deepens:
- Bitcoin fell to about $60,200 at the lowest, its lowest level since October 2024. Ethereum fell to as low as about $1,770, its lowest level since May last year. Year to date BTC is down 24.4% and ETH is down 35.1%. Total crypto market cap is down 23.16% from $2.97 trillion to $2.23 trillion year to date.
BlackRock’s U.S. Bitcoin ETF Hits $10 Billion Record-Volume Day:
- BlackRock’s U.S. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF traded about $10 billion in one day last week and fell 13%. Despite the activity, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of only about $434.1 million that day. This means roughly $434.1 million more in ETF shares were sold than bought.
BitMine Flags Up to $8 Billion Unrealized Loss on Ethereum:
- BitMine, the largest corporate holder of Ether, holds 4.33 million ETH worth about $8.69 billion at current prices. Last week, it at one point had an unrealized loss of as much as $8 billion, highlighting a key risk across the crypto market as Ethereum and other tokens fell.
U.S. Government Shutdown Ends Fast, Limiting Disruption:
- A partial U.S. government shutdown lasted four days. That is shorter than the 43-day shutdown from October to November 2025. The quicker resolution reduced the risk of delayed macroeconomic data and increased uncertainty.

Last Week’s Big Three

Crypto’s Selloff Continued: Last week’s Firi Weekly highlighted that week 5 of 2026, from Monday, January 26 to Sunday, February 1, was tough for crypto, with substantial market declines. Last week was even worse. Bitcoin traded as low as about $60,200 and Ethereum as low as roughly $1,770 during the night between Thursday and Friday.

For Bitcoin, that marked its lowest level since October 2024, just before Donald Trump was elected to a second term and sentiment turned euphoric following his victory in the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. For Ethereum, you have to go back to May last year to find prices this low. We show charts below that illustrate the recent drawdown and, in our view, the main drivers behind it.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Hits Record Daily Volume: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, the largest U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the world’s largest asset manager, posted record trading volume last Thursday, with about $10 billion in shares changing hands. It was also the ETF’s second-largest daily decline, down 13%, close to its record one-day drop of 15% on May 8, 2024.

Even with that volume on a day when crypto performed exceptionally poorly, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs collectively saw outflows of about $434.1 million, which, in turn, could have been much worse.

BitMine Records an $8 Billion Unrealized Loss on Ethereum: BitMine is the largest corporate owner of Ether and is publicly listed in the U.S. It is a so-called Digital Asset Treasury, or DAT, firm, meaning it holds large digital asset positions on its balance sheet. The company holds 4.33 million Ether, currently worth about $8.69 billion. Last week, that position at one point showed an unrealized loss of as much as $8 billion, implying they had, on average, bought Ether at roughly twice the then-current price.

Taken together, BlackRock’s record daily trading volume and BitMine’s large billion-dollar unrealized loss reinforce how substantial the crypto market’s decline has been, especially over the past several weeks.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices, Year-to-Date

Looking at the chart, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is down about 24.4% year to date, while Ethereum, the second-largest, is down about 35.1%. Over the past year, Bitcoin is down about 31.6% and Ethereum is down about 27.4%.

In our view, this recent decline has mainly been driven by weaker risk appetite in equities, particularly technology and AI-related stocks. It has also been fueled by renewed concerns about whether crypto is still following the four-year cycle it has historically followed and, if so, whether the peak of this cycle occurred late last year and will be followed by a longer, downward-trending market.

In addition, over the past few months, capital appears to have been rotating out of crypto and into AI-related stocks and metals. The market is also pricing in fewer U.S. dollar interest-rate cuts this year, which may weigh on risk appetite. There are also concerns that one or more large Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) firms—such as Strategy and BitMine—could become forced sellers in the near future if their market capitalization falls below the value of their crypto holdings. This is further compounded by an apparent lack of near-term catalysts that could lift the market.

Overall, it looks like the market has been asking for weeks whether this is the near-term bottom. So far, it has not been.

Chart 2: Total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization

This is not just a Bitcoin and Ethereum story. Most of the crypto market has taken a meaningful hit over the past weeks and months.

Since the start of the year, total cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined by 23.16%, from about $2.97 trillion to about $2.23 trillion.

A Number to Remember

4 Days

That is how long the recent partial U.S. government shutdown lasted before it ended last week. That is a sharp contrast to the record-long shutdown in October and November last year, which lasted 43 days. It is positive that this shutdown ended quickly, since shutdowns can delay key macroeconomic data, which would increase uncertainty—particularly around interest-rate expectations—and likely weigh on the U.S. economy.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the short-term:

Do ETF Inflows Return? Since the record trading day for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF last Thursday, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows. That suggests more traditional investors are buying crypto on the dip. We will be watching to see whether those inflows continue. If they do, it should be positive for the crypto market.
What Is Next for the U.S. CLARITY Act? We are awaiting any updates on the U.S. Clarity Act, a regulatory framework intended to regulate the crypto market in depth. It was postponed in January, and there has been limited news since. If the final framework is well structured for crypto, it could, to some degree, be a catalyst the market is waiting for.
Can the Stablecoin Supply Keep Pace? Stablecoins were the crown jewel of the crypto industry in 2025, growing about 50%. Historically, stablecoin supply has been closely correlated with crypto prices, meaning it tended to fall whenever prices did. Over the past few weeks, however, supply has been nearly flat even as crypto prices have fallen sharply. That is a positive sign, suggesting stablecoins are increasingly used outside crypto markets for non-crypto use cases.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 13/02/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.