Firi Weekly: Tariffs Back On, Back Off

Firi Weekly: Tariffs Back On, Back Off

  • Trump’s Tariff Threat Over Greenland, Followed by a U-turn:
    • Trump initially threatened a 10% U.S. tariff on goods from eight European countries, including Norway and Denmark, effective February 1, rising to 25% on June 1 if no agreement on Greenland was reached by then. He later said the planned tariff was no longer on the table after a reported agreement related to Greenland. Details remain scarce, but markets, crypto included, reacted positively to the de-escalation.
  • U.S. Clarity Act Delayed After Pushback:
    • The crypto “Clarity Act” vote was postponed after Coinbase withdrew support, citing problematic provisions, particularly around tokenized equities, decentralized finance, and stablecoin rewards, leaving uncertainty over when regulatory clarity arrives.
  • Germany’s DZ Bank Launches Retail Crypto Platform:
    • DZ Bank introduced “meinKrypto,” enabling German banks to offer retail trading in BTC, ETH, LTC, and ADA, signaling broader demand for bank-led crypto adoption in Europe.
  • ETF Flows Rebound Strongly in Early 2026:
    • The U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have started 2026 strongly, with January net inflows of $727.3 million and $355.2 million so far, and last week marked the best week since October at $1.42 billion for Bitcoin ETFs and $479.3 million for Ethereum ETFs.

Last Week’s Big Three

Trump Threatens Europe with Tariffs Tied to Greenland: Just ahead of Christmas Eve last year, U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as Special Envoy to Greenland, with a mandate framed around bringing Greenland under U.S. control. Since then, the rhetoric has intensified, with the administration repeatedly arguing that control of Greenland is a national-security imperative. Greenland, Denmark, and much of Europe have been equally consistent in rejecting the premise outright.

Over the weekend, Trump escalated by threatening tariffs on imports from eight European countries, including Denmark and Norway, that oppose his push in the Greenland dispute. The original proposal was a 10% tariff on all goods shipped to the U.S. if no deal was in place by February 1, stepping up to 25% from June 1 and staying in effect until an agreement was reached. Europe’s response was swift and forceful. EU lawmakers paused a vote on an already agreed trade deal with the U.S., and further retaliation looked likely if Trump followed through.

Just last night, Trump walked back the immediate tariff threat and said the planned tariff was no longer on the table after reportedly reaching some form of agreement related to Greenland. There are still few public details, but the U-turn reduced near-term escalation risk and sparked a partial recovery, particularly across risk assets, including crypto.

The U.S. Clarity Act Stalls: Since the U.S. “Genius Act” passed in July last year, the market has been watching for the next major step: the “Clarity Act,” a broader framework intended to define how crypto markets are regulated in the United States. In practical terms, the bill is expected to clarify where the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the federal agency that regulates securities markets, ends and where the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that oversees derivatives and certain commodity markets, begins.

That clarity matters. It could expand the range of crypto services that can be offered in the U.S. and reduce the risk that has kept many traditional financial institutions on the sidelines.

This month, the Clarity Act appeared close to a U.S. Senate vote, with the U.S. House already having passed its version and the White House signaling readiness to sign. Last week, however, Coinbase pulled its support, arguing that certain provisions on tokenized equities, decentralized finance, and stablecoin rewards were worse than the status quo and overly favorable to incumbent banking interests. The vote was postponed, and visibility on the revised timeline is limited.

The bottom line: the industry still needs this bill, but markets will care just as much about the details as the headline.

Germany’s Second-Largest Bank Enables Retail Crypto Trading: DZ Bank, Germany’s second-largest bank, announced the launch of “meinKrypto,” a platform designed to let other German banks offer retail crypto trading. At launch, the product supports Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Cardano.

Banks offering the service must hold a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license, the European Union’s framework for regulating crypto assets and service providers, issued through the German financial regulator. Even with that hurdle, the trend is clear: banks increasingly use crypto access to differentiate from competitors. We expect similar bank-led retail offerings to gain traction across Scandinavia over the next one to two years.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices, Past Seven Days

Firi illustration

Trump’s tariff announcement aimed at selected European countries initially brought the risk of another trade war back into markets, but crypto’s weekend reaction was relatively muted. Price action picked up later, first as traditional currencies and futures markets reopened overnight into Monday, and then again when U.S. equities reopened on Tuesday after Monday’s market holiday. The crypto selloff was further amplified by broad selling pressure across the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and global equities.

Market sentiment improved afterward after Trump said last night that the planned tariff is no longer on the table, reportedly following some form of agreement on Greenland. While details remain limited, markets treated it as a near-term de-escalation, and crypto reacted positively.

Chart 2: 40-Year Japan Bond Yield

Firi illustration

Separately, Japanese long-end yields jumped, weighing on risk assets more broadly, including tech and crypto. The 40-year Japanese government bond yield briefly pushed to about 4.2%, a notable move from roughly 3.6% at the start of the year.

The catalyst appears domestic rather than tied to Trump’s tariff threat. Japan has called a snap election for early February, partly linked to efforts to postpone a food tax. Markets see that as potentially worsening Japan’s fiscal outlook at a time when government debt is already elevated. Higher long-end yields tend to tighten financial conditions at the margin, and they rarely help risk-on positioning.

Chart 3: Monthly U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Net Flow

Firi illustration

On a more positive note, the U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have started 2026 on firmer footing after net outflows in November and December. Year-to-date, net inflows are approximately $727.3 million for Bitcoin ETFs and $355.2 million for Ethereum ETFs.

Last week was the strongest since October, with Bitcoin ETFs taking in about $1.42 billion and Ethereum ETFs around $479.3 million.

A Number to Remember

$200 million

BitMine, the largest so-called Digital Assets Treasury (DAT) firm focused on Ethereum, disclosed plans to invest $200 million in Beast Industries, the entertainment company founded by Jimmy Donaldson, better known as MrBeast. BitMine reports holdings of roughly 4.17 million ether, valued at about $12.35 billion.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

  • Trade-War Risk, However, Has Not Disappeared: Trump may have said the planned tariff will not be implemented, but the episode makes clear how quickly a single Trump headline can move currencies, rates, equities, and crypto. The risk of another prolonged trade dispute is still very much alive.
  • The U.S. Clarity Act Timeline and Substance: With the bill postponed, attention shifts to what changes bring Coinbase and other stakeholders back onside, and whether Washington can still deliver a credible market-structure framework in the near term.
  • Japan’s Long-End Yields: If Japanese bond yields continue to climb, that could stay a drag on risk appetite. A stabilization, or reversal, would ease one of the macro headwinds that has weighed on digital assets this week.
Portrait of Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst at Firi.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 22/01/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.