Firi Weekly: Crypto Meets NVIDIA

Firi Weekly: Crypto Meets NVIDIA

  • NVIDIA Beats but Markets Shrug:
    • NVIDIA beat earnings expectations, but its data-center segment came in slightly below analyst forecasts, potentially dampening crypto sentiment.
  • U.S. Government Goes Onchain:
    • The Department of Commerce published GDP data on nine blockchains including Bitcoin and Ethereum for the first time ever, signaling blockchain's legitimacy beyond financial applications.
  • Ethereum Exit Queue Hits Record:
    • The staking exit queue reached $5 billion worth of Ether, suggesting holders may be preparing to sell after recent gains, though the entry queue also remains high.
  • ETF Flows Tell the Story:
    • Despite massive staking exits, August saw the Bitcoin ETFs lose $749.2 million while the Ethereum ETFs gained $3.87 billion—the Ethereum ETF's second month since launch, reflecting Ethereum's recent outperformance.

Last Week’s Big Three

NVIDIA's Results Were Both Positive and Negative: You may ask why we are covering NVIDIA's quarterly results in a market update for digital assets. Since ChatGPT's release in November 2022, markets have increasingly viewed NVIDIA's results as a key indicator of risk sentiment, with the company serving as the backbone of the AI frenzy. As a result, NVIDIA’s stock performance also impacts digital assets.

On Wednesday evening after U.S. equity markets closed, NVIDIA released its second-quarter results. The company beat slightly on revenue and earnings versus market expectations: revenue hit $46.74 billion versus $46.06 billion estimated, while earnings per share reached $1.05 versus $1.01 expected. Management also issued guidance for the current period that exceeded estimates.

However, the important data-center segment—which includes sales of powerful chips used to train and refine artificial intelligence models—came in slightly below expectations. This sent NVIDIA stock lower in Wednesday's after-hours trading, though it recovered most losses during Thursday's regular session.

The U.S. Publishes Economic Data on Blockchains: Thursday marked a historic moment when the U.S. government released economic data on public blockchains for the first time. The U.S. Department of Commerce published gross domestic product (GDP) data on nine different blockchains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, TRON, Stellar, Avalanche, Arbitrum, Polygon, and Optimism. The data was also distributed through oracle networks Chainlink and Pyth.

The agency described this GDP data release as a proof of concept while stressing it will continue to innovate and broaden the scope of publishing future datasets to include additional blockchains, oracles, and exchanges.

While this development is not a gamechanger for crypto, it signals that blockchains can serve purposes beyond finance. Since the U.S. government is publishing data directly on these public blockchains, it lends credibility to digital assets.

Ethereum’s Staking Exit Queue Reaches Record Levels: Last week, Ethereum's staking exit queue hit nearly $5 billion worth of Ether for the first time ever. The staking exit queue forms when Ethereum holders wish to unstake their Ether. The Ethereum network limits how many validators can exit daily—when unstaking requests exceed this limit, a queue forms. Last week's queue peaked at about 1.06 million Ether, worth $4.96 billion at the time. The exit queue has since declined to about 927,000 Ether today.

This massive exit queue is generally a negative signal, suggesting many market participants are unstaking to potentially sell their Ether after decent returns in recent months. However, the entry queue to stake Ether also remains very high at about 735,000 Ether, signaling almost as many want to stake. The key issue: Ether in the entry queue has already been purchased, while the exit queue may represent Ether that has not been sold yet.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies, Year-to-Date Performance

Since Bitcoin hit its all-time high above $124,000 in mid-August, it has been rough for the largest cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has declined overall since then, currently trading around $109,000. During the same period, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB—among the top five cryptocurrencies by market capitalization excluding stablecoins—have outperformed Bitcoin, though they also saw declines last week.

Last week's drop was most likely due to NVIDIA sliding on Wednesday, creating a weaker risk environment for crypto, combined with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday—the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation measure—coming in at expectations but still higher than June's number.

Year-to-date, Ethereum is the best-performing cryptocurrency of these five with returns of about 30%, with BNB following closely at approximately 20%. Solana is the worst performer, barely positive on the year with nearly 3% returns.

Chart 2: Bitcoin Dominance of the Total Cryptocurrency Market

As the first chart suggested, Bitcoin's dominance of the total cryptocurrency market by market capitalization has fallen since topping at nearly 66% in late June. This metric—calculated by dividing Bitcoin's market cap by the total market capitalization of all digital assets—now sits at slightly over 58%, though still a bit higher than the beginning of the year. In other words, Bitcoin now represents less of the complete crypto market, as it has underperformed the general market in recent months.

Chart 3: Monthly U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Net Flow

If we had to choose a single chart to illustrate Bitcoin's recent underperformance, it would be the monthly U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) net flows. This chart clearly shows where traditional and institutional investors are positioning between Bitcoin and Ethereum.

During August, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $749.2 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.87 billion. This marks the second best month for U.S. Ethereum ETFs since launching. That being said, there is no guarantee that Ether acquired by these ETFs would not quickly turn to outflows again, as both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have experienced before.

A Number to Remember

39

This is the current reading of the crypto market's Fear and Greed Index, which ranges from 0 to 100. Lower values indicate extreme fear, while higher values indicate extreme greed. A reading of 39 suggests there is some fear in the market following last week's decline, though not at extreme levels.

On Our Radar

Developments we're watching for the week ahead:

  • Trump’s Tariffs Face Legal Challenge: On Friday evening, a federal appeals court ruled most of President Donald Trump's global tariffs illegal. The tariffs will remain in place pending further review, meaning we will certainly hear more about this soon, which will impact crypto markets.
  • All Eyes on Friday’s Payroll Numbers: Friday brings the release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report—the U.S. government's comprehensive employment data. When this was released last time in early August, it brought significant market turmoil as the numbers were quite negative. It led President Trump to fire U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, as Trump claimed the numbers were "rigged." Given this history, markets will watch Friday's release closely.
  • Trump-linked WLFI Token Launches Today: Today, Monday September 1st, World Liberty Financial launches its WLFI token. This project is closely affiliated with President Trump and his family and is therefore being watched carefully. Depending on how the launch goes, it may tell us something about overall risk sentiment in the crypto market.
Mads Eberhardt01/09/2025
Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.