Firi Weekly: A Rough Week for Crypto

Firi Weekly: A Rough Week for Crypto

  • Trump Picks New Fed Chair:
    • Donald Trump has chosen Kevin Warsh to take over the U.S. Federal Reserve from May. Markets viewed him as a more mainstream pick than feared, easing concerns about a politicized Fed. This served as a catalyst for gold to fall 9.3% and silver to fall 29.2% on Friday, followed by a drop in crypto on Saturday.
  • Crypto Sells Off to Lowest Levels Since May Last Year:
    • Amid this and other factors, including recent investor reallocations toward other asset classes and the U.S. government shutdown, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market have fallen to levels not seen since May last year.
  • The UK Nears Final Crypto Rulebook:
    • The UK financial regulator issued a final consultation with 10 crypto proposals. The final framework is expected in March, with full implementation expected by October 2027, bringing the UK closer to comprehensive crypto regulation.
  • Fidelity Launching Digital Dollar Stablecoin:
    • Fidelity, the world’s third largest asset manager, plans to launch a USD stablecoin called FIDD on Ethereum in the next few weeks.

Last Week’s Big Three

Trump Picks Next Fed Chair: On Friday last week, Trump appointed Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), ending months of speculation. Warsh is a former Fed governor, a Wall Street veteran, and has previously advised Trump on economic policy.

Markets appear more comfortable with Warsh than they were with the broader set of possibilities. Trump has repeatedly urged the current Fed chair, Jerome Powell, to cut rates, raising concerns that the White House could try to undermine the Fed’s independence. Investors had worried Trump might pick someone who would effectively act as an extension of his agenda inside the central bank. Warsh’s experience, and his history of not generally arguing for lower rates, seems to have reduced those fears, even though he has previously called for regime change at the Fed and did argue for lower interest rates in 2025.

Warsh is set to take over when Powell’s term ends in May. So far, the announcement has had a meaningful impact across markets, most notably in precious metals such as gold and silver, as reflected in the first chart.

UK Nears Final Crypto Rulebook: While the Clarity Act, which is expected to regulate the crypto market in the U.S., has recently been postponed, the UK continues to move steadily toward a more complete framework. In late January, the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) released a final consultation on its crypto regime, including 10 regulatory proposals. The process now moves to a public hearing, with a final framework expected in March and full implementation targeted for October 2027. Last week, the UK House of Lords also requested public input specifically on stablecoins, including how the UK can participate in their growth and what risks may be involved.

Overall, the UK’s progress is another indication that crypto is being brought further into formal regulatory structures. In parallel, the market is still waiting for clarity on the U.S. Clarity Act.

Fidelity to Launch Its Own Stablecoin: Fidelity, the world’s third-largest asset manager, said last week that it is close to launching its own dollar-denominated stablecoin. The token will be called Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD) and is expected to be available on the Ethereum blockchain within the next few weeks. Additional blockchains could follow later. The reserves behind the stablecoin will consist of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasuries, in line with the requirements of the U.S. Genius Act . The latter is a U.S. law passed last year focused specifically on rules for stablecoins. Fidelity said the stablecoin will be available on its own platforms and on international crypto exchanges.

Fidelity has been involved in crypto for years, so the move itself isn’t entirely surprising, even if it’s still a constructive development. What stands out more is the timeline: the launch appears close rather than years away.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Gold and Silver vs. Bitcoin Price Performance in January

Firi illustration

Physical metals have surged over much of the past year and continued higher through January. At one point last week, gold was up as much as 29.4% and silver was up roughly 68.4% for January. The rally was supported by fears that the Fed’s future independence could be at risk, a euphoric tone in metals, a weakening U.S. dollar, and geopolitical uncertainty.

On Friday, that positioning reversed sharply. Gold fell about 9.3% and silver dropped around 29.2% after Trump appointed Warsh as the next Fed chair, as investors took the appointment as a sign the Fed would remain independent. The appointment appears to have been the key catalyst for the selloff, coming after an extended period of euphoria.

Crypto initially reacted less on Friday, as the chart shows, but weakened the following day. The Saturday move likely reflected thin weekend liquidity, spillover from Friday’s metals selloff, renewed concerns about whether crypto is still following a four-year cycle with a peak late last year, and the broader recent risk-on capital rotating out of crypto into AI-related stocks and metals. Uncertainty around the U.S. government shutdown, which began over the weekend, also weighed on sentiment.

By Monday this week, Bitcoin had fallen to roughly $74,600 and Ethereum to about $2,157, the lowest levels since May last year.

Chart 2: Monthly U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Net Flow

Firi illustration

With January 2026 now complete, we can assess monthly flows into the U.S.-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Both categories began the month with net inflows during the first half, but flows turned negative in the second half. The Bitcoin ETFs ended January with net outflows of $1.61 billion, while the U.S. Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $342.6 million, broadly consistent with crypto’s weak performance over the month.

A Number to Remember

$76,047

This is the average entry price of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. The firm holds 713,502 bitcoin, worth about $53.6 billion. A Bitcoin price below that level implies the firm is sitting on an unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

  • When Will the U.S. Shutdown End? The U.S. government shutdown is generally negative for crypto because it increases uncertainty. It can delay macroeconomic data, make rate expectations noisier, and likely weigh on the U.S. economy. In theory, the end of the shutdown should be supportive for crypto, depending on how long it lasts.
  • How Are Metals Performing? The most risk-on part of markets in recent months has been metals, especially gold and silver. Their future performance may offer signals about when risk-on capital could start rotating back toward crypto.
  • What’s Happening With ETFs? The flows of the ETFs are another window into risk appetite, particularly among more traditional investors. Net inflows or outflows in the U.S. crypto ETFs may help indicate when these investors turn back to accumulating crypto on a net basis.
Portrait of Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst at Firi.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 04/02/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.