Ceasefire in the Middle East: Last week, we highlighted Iran's potential response to U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as a critical market catalyst. On Monday evening, Iran fired missiles at a U.S. military base in Qatar—a constrained retaliation that avoided escalation. President Trump even thanked Iran for providing advance notice of the attack.
Hours later, the U.S. announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. While both countries allegedly violated the agreement shortly after implementation, they have denied these claims, and the ceasefire now appears to be holding.
As expected, markets rallied on both Iran's restrained response and the swift ceasefire announcement. Bitcoin surged 5.8% between Monday 17:00 and Tuesday 17:00, while Ethereum jumped 7.9% over the same period.
U.S. Solana ETFs Draw Closer: Friday brought significant developments when the SEC confirmed it had no further comments on REX Shares’ Solana ETF. Yesterday, REX Shares confirmed that the ETF will start trading on Wednesday, instantly sending the Solana price higher.
This REX Shares product differs substantially from the recently launched Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. Its rare C‑corp business structure initially prompted SEC concerns about meeting investment company legal definitions, but the agency now appears satisfied with the structure.
The breakthrough is not just about it being the first U.S. Solana ETF; it is also about the staking component. REX Shares will stake Solana and distribute rewards to holders, making this the first staked U.S. crypto ETF. This precedent could unlock staking for Ethereum ETFs, where multiple issuers have requested permission to stake underlying assets to enhance investor appeal.
Nine additional issuers have filed for U.S. Solana ETFs using the traditional structure of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, including Wednesday’s filing by Invesco and Galaxy Digital. The SEC must approve or deny these applications by October 10. We believe it is more likely than not that Ethereum ETFs will gain staking capabilities this year, alongside Solana ETF approvals.
A Home for Crypto: The U.S. regulatory landscape shifted further when Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which oversees government mortgage enterprises, directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare for accepting cryptocurrency holdings as mortgage assets. This means future homebuyers would not need to liquidate crypto positions when applying for loans.
This integration into the financial system’s core infrastructure could reduce selling pressure over time. However, it also introduces systemic risk by effectively making volatile crypto assets collateral in the housing market—a fundamental economic pillar. The specific risk assessment methodologies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac develop will determine whether crypto volatility could ultimately force homeowners to sell properties in extreme scenarios.
