Firi Weekly: Crypto on Track to Finish the Year Below Its Start

JPMorgan Launches Tokenized Fund on Ethereum:
- JPMorgan launched its first tokenized fund, MONY, issued on Ethereum. This suggests major banks are gradually moving real-world yield products onchain for broader utility.
SoFi Launches Dollar Stablecoin:
- SoFi introduced SoFiUSD, a fully reserved USD stablecoin via SoFi Bank, aimed at institutional settlements.
Fed Eases Crypto Restrictions for Smaller Banks:
- The U.S. Federal Reserve withdrew 2023 guidance that limited smaller supervised banks’ crypto activity, potentially enabling more bank-led crypto products and services.
U.S. Inflation Surprises Positively:
- November’s U.S. inflation print came in at 2.7% versus 3.1% expected (September was 3.0%). The softer reading could shift expectations toward more rate cuts in 2026, but for now, crypto is still on track to end the year lower than it started.

Last Week’s Big Three

JPMorgan Launches Its First Tokenized Fund on Ethereum: JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank, announced the launch of its first tokenized fund, issued natively on Ethereum. Tokenizing the fund allows it to integrate with Ethereum-based applications and trade around the clock.

The product, My OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY), is positioned as a money market fund, giving investors a way to earn interest while operating in an onchain format. Stepping back, this is another signal that major banks are gradually adopting crypto and crypto-native products.

SoFi Also Introduces a Stablecoin: SoFi, the U.S. fintech and online banking platform, also entered the stablecoin race last week with SoFiUSD, a fully reserved U.S. dollar stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank. The initial focus is institutional settlement for clients such as banks, fintechs, and enterprise platforms.

Stablecoins have been everywhere in 2025. Total supply is up more than 50% this year, and the list of recognizable names either launching or telegraphing launches keeps growing, including upcoming initiatives from Sweden’s SEB and Danske Bank. SoFi is the latest to join that wave.

The Fed Withdraws Restrictive Crypto Guidance for Smaller Banks: The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) withdrew last week a 2023 guidance that had limited crypto-related activity for smaller U.S. banks under its supervision. The Fed’s rationale for withdrawing the guidance was that both the financial system and its own understanding of the crypto market have evolved since that guidance was issued.

In practice, this is a meaningful tone shift. A less restrictive policy stance gives smaller banks more room to offer custody, settlement, and other crypto-adjacent services, so we are likely to see broader bank participation in crypto over the coming years.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum, Year-to-Date Performance

In the final edition of Firi Weekly for the year, we are looking back at the 2025 performance of the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, so far. Bitcoin is down roughly 6.5% year-to-date, while Ethereum is down about 12.2%. That is a sharp reversal from earlier highs: at their peaks this year, Bitcoin was up as much as 35.3%, and Ethereum reached gains of roughly 43.7%.

The drawdown has been most pronounced since mid-October, alongside a broader cooling in risk appetite that is also shown up in equities. Another factor shaping positioning is the market’s long-running “four-year cycle” narrative. Historically, crypto markets have tended to peak on a four-year rhythm, and if that pattern repeats, traders would expect topping behavior around this window, followed by a more prolonged decline. Whether the cycle holds or not, it is likely influencing sentiment and near-term risk-taking.

A Number to Remember

2,7 %

Last week’s U.S. inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key gauge of consumer prices, came in at 2.7% for November. That was well below the 3.1% consensus forecast. The most recent prior CPI report was September at 3.0%.

October’s inflation figure was not published due to the U.S. government shutdown. If this trend of lower inflation persists, it increases the odds that the market leans more decisively toward more rate cuts in 2026.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the foreseeable future ahead:

Will Equities Get a “Santa Rally”? Stocks often see a year-end lift in the final trading days of December. Crypto has not reliably followed this seasonal pattern in the past, but a broad risk-on tone in equities can still spill over into digital assets.
The Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs: The U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows of $497.1 million and $643.9 million, respectively, last week. That flow picture suggests traditional investors have been trimming crypto exposure, which would make a late-year rally harder to sustain if the outflow continues.
Any News on the U.S. Clarity Act? The U.S. Clarity Act, a proposed regulatory framework intended to clarify how crypto markets are regulated in the United States, appears pushed into January. Even so, we are staying alert for unexpected developments over the next few weeks that could push crypto in either direction.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 27/12/2025

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.