Firi Weekly: $80.000

Firi Weekly: $80.000

  • Bitcoin Breaks Above $80,000:
    • Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 for the first time since late January. The move followed a 12.75% April gain, supported by stronger risk sentiment, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, corporate buying, and renewed progress on the U.S. Clarity Act. That said, tensions in the Middle East remain a key uncertainty that could quickly turn market sentiment.
  • Clarity Act Moves Closer:
    • U.S. banks and crypto firms reached a compromise on stablecoin rewards. This removes a major obstacle for the Clarity Act, which could significantly improve crypto regulation in the U.S. and support further adoption of crypto. With few hurdles remaining, passage before summer now appears likely.
  • Banking Circle Expands into Stablecoins:
    • Banking Circle launched a stablecoin service after receiving a crypto licence in Luxembourg. The company will support a range of stablecoins and make stablecoin payments available to its network of more than 700 regulated financial institutions.
  • Brazil Restricts the Use of Stablecoins:
    • Brazil’s central bank has prohibited regulated financial providers from using crypto, including stablecoins, for settlements to and from foreign accounts. The rule takes effect on 1 October and could slow institutional adoption, even as stablecoins are gaining global traction specifically for cross-border payments.

Last Week’s Big Three

Was This the Final Hurdle for the U.S. Clarity Act? In last week’s Firi Weekly, we discussed how the U.S. Clarity Act did not pass in April. We also argued that if it was not passed before the summer, it would likely become harder to pass this year because of the U.S. midterm elections later in the year.

The bill is expected to create clearer regulation for the crypto industry in the United States. Among other things, it could strengthen protections for customers of crypto companies, provide crypto businesses with better operating conditions, and make it easier for traditional financial institutions to engage more deeply with crypto.

The legislation has been delayed several times, mainly because of disagreement over whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay interest or other rewards. U.S. banks reportedly do not want the Clarity Act to allow interest or similar rewards on stablecoins, as they fear customers could move money out of bank deposits and into stablecoins. Crypto firms, meanwhile, want the option to offer rewards on stablecoin holdings.

On Friday last week, banks on one side and crypto companies on the other finally reached an agreement on this specific issue. Under the compromise, paying interest on stablecoins will be prohibited if it closely resembles a bank deposit. This would apply, for example, if a customer simply holds the stablecoin in an account in the same way they would normally hold a bank balance.

Crypto companies will, however, be allowed to pay rewards if those rewards are linked to activity, such as trading, payments, or similar use cases. At this stage, there is still considerable uncertainty around which customer activities will qualify for rewards. The U.S. Treasury and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will be responsible for defining those details.

The positive takeaway is that, with this hurdle now addressed, the Clarity Act appears much more likely to pass this year, potentially even before the summer. That would likely be positive for the crypto industry.

Banking Circle Introduces Stablecoin Settlement Services: Banking Circle, the Danish-founded payment service provider, received a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license in Luxembourg in mid-April. MiCA is the European Union’s regulatory framework for crypto-related companies.

Following its new MiCA license, Banking Circle announced last week that it is launching stablecoin settlement services. In practice, this means the company will support settlement between traditional currencies and stablecoins, including USDC, USDG, and EURI, for clients that include more than 700 regulated financial institutions.

Banking Circle is another firm doubling down on stablecoins, following a 50% increase in the total stablecoin supply last year. The move also comes after Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, announced last week that creators can now be paid in USDC.

Brazil Bans Financial Firms from Stablecoin Settlement: While stablecoin adoption continues to grow, crypto development is rarely one-directional. On April 30, the Brazilian Central Bank published updated rules for electronic foreign exchange (eFX) providers, banning them from using cryptocurrencies, including stablecoins, to settle transactions to and from foreign accounts. For those activities, providers must use traditional settlement methods. The new rule takes effect on October 1 this year.

Several Brazilian challenger banks, including Nomad and Braza Bank, had otherwise used stablecoins in this way. The rule does not prohibit end users from owning or using crypto, including stablecoins. It applies only to regulated financial institutions.

This is clearly a step in the wrong direction for stablecoin settlement between financial firms globally. That said, one has to wonder whether the Brazilian Central Bank will eventually need to revisit this position sooner rather than later.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices, Year-to-Date

Firi illustration

For the first time since the end of January, Bitcoin climbed above $80,000. It crossed that level during the night between Sunday and Monday this week. Ethereum, meanwhile, rose to around $2,400, although it also reached that area in mid-April. Overall, Bitcoin gained 12.75% in April.

Several factors appear to have driven Bitcoin, and much of the broader crypto market, higher. These include Friday’s deal related to the U.S. Clarity Act, recent strong net inflows into the U.S. crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), recent buying from Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, Bitmine, and other digital asset treasury companies whose business model is often primarily to hold crypto on their balance sheets, and stronger equity markets over the past few weeks. Equity market strength appears to have been supported by solid first-quarter earnings as companies gradually report their results.

Overall, investor risk appetite appears to have improved in recent weeks. That may partly also reflect the fact that, for now, investors seem less focused on the war in the Middle East, even though tensions have escalated over the past few days, as discussed in the final section.

A Number to Remember

3.50 to 3.75%

There was no surprise from the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), last week. The Fed kept the U.S. dollar interest rate unchanged, exactly as the market had expected. This was the Fed’s third consecutive rate hold so far in 2026.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted afterward that the central bank is in a wait-and-see position as it assesses developments in the Middle East, which could affect inflation and, in turn, the need for higher interest rates before making further decisions.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the foreseeable future:

  • Middle East Developments: U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the United States would launch “Project Freedom” to guide commercial ships stranded in the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. This has reignited tensions in the region, with Iran reportedly attacking military and commercial vehicles. The United States has reportedly managed to escort some ships through the strait. We are watching developments in the Middle East closely, as they could have a significant market impact.
  • Will the U.S. Clarity Act Cross the Finish Line? We are now watching for further progress on the U.S. Clarity Act. If the bill is to pass before the summer, several hurdles still need to be cleared, and they need to be cleared fairly quickly. Further progress could support crypto markets, while negative developments could weigh on them.
  • Can Bitcoin Hold the $80,000 Level? The $80,000 mark may be an important level for Bitcoin investors to hold, as it arguably serves as a psychological level. Losing it would likely not be seen as positive.
Portrait of Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst at Firi.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 06/05/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.