Firi Weekly: Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Firi Weekly: Macroeconomic Uncertainty

  • Trump's WLFI Token Launches:
    • World Liberty Financial’s WLFI token surged to 40 cents before halving in value, yet the project maintains a staggering $20 billion valuation—remarkable for a venture that has yet to deliver any product with meaningful adoption.
  • Stripe Builds Own Blockchain:
    • Payment processing giant Stripe unveiled Tempo, its proprietary blockchain designed specifically for stablecoin transactions—but the crypto community has criticized Stripe’s decision to bypass established networks like Ethereum in favor of building from scratch.
  • Ethereum's Wall Street Push Gets $40 million:
    • Etherealize raised $40 million from Electric Capital and Paradigm to build institutional infrastructure for Wall Street, addressing criticism that the Ethereum Foundation was not promoting adoption enough.
  • Jobs Report Disappoints Again:
    • The U.S. created only 22,000 jobs versus 76,500 expected, while unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. This follows Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner after the previous weak report. All eyes are now on this week’s U.S. inflation data, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates next week.

Last Week’s Big Three

Trump-linked WLFI Launches: World Liberty Financial launched its WLFI token on Monday. The crypto venture is closely tied to U.S. President Donald Trump and several family members, who serve as founders. The project has rolled out a stablecoin called USD1 and appears positioned to enter the decentralized finance (DeFi) space—the ecosystem of financial services built on blockchain technology without traditional intermediaries.

On launch day, WLFI spiked to 40 cents before retreating to its current level around 20 cents. Despite trading in cents, WLFI commands a total market value exceeding $20 billion. However, this figure comes with significant caveats: only 25% of the total token supply currently circulates, with the remainder locked in vesting schedules. Even accounting for just the circulating supply, WLFI ranks as the 28th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

The Trump family reportedly holds approximately 22.5 billion tokens, translating to roughly $4.68 billion at current prices. These holdings remain largely illiquid due to vesting restrictions. The massive valuation appears disconnected from fundamentals, considering World Liberty Financial has yet to launch substantial products or demonstrate clear utility for its token.

Stripe Announces Its Own Blockchain: Payment infrastructure leader Stripe revealed Tempo last week, a purpose-built blockchain optimized for stablecoin payments and transfers. The company partnered with prominent crypto venture fund Paradigm to develop the network, attracting an impressive roster of collaborators including OpenAI, Anthropic, and Deutsche Bank. Tempo has entered its private testnet phase, with public testing likely to follow soon.

The crypto community's reaction proved largely negative, with many questioning why Stripe chose to fragment the ecosystem by creating yet another blockchain rather than leveraging existing decentralized networks with proven track records like Ethereum or Solana. Building sufficient network effects and achieving meaningful adoption from zero presents enormous challenges. However, Stripe and its partners possess unmatched distribution capabilities—if any consortium could successfully launch a new blockchain, this group arguably stands the best chance.

Ethereum’s Institutional Arm Raises $40 Million: Throughout last year, the Ethereum community increasingly criticized the Ethereum Foundation (EF) for moving too slowly on network upgrades while failing to effectively promote Ethereum adoption. These tensions reached a breaking point in January when the Ethereum Foundation announced sweeping leadership changes and restructured its upgrade roadmap.

Simultaneously, Etherealize emerged from stealth. Etherealize launched with initial funding from the Ethereum Foundation and Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin, specifically tasked with driving Ethereum adoption among Wall Street institutions. Last week, the organization raised $40 million to develop products and infrastructure tailored for financial institutions operating on Ethereum. This includes sophisticated tools enabling Wall Street firms to tokenize traditional assets on public blockchains. Veteran crypto venture capitalists Electric Capital and aforementioned Paradigm led the funding round.

This development signals progress as the crypto industry increasingly recognizes that institutional adoption requires specialized infrastructure. Getting financial institutions comfortable with public blockchains demands far more sophisticated tooling than serving retail users.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: U.S. Jobs Created (Nonfarm Payrolls)

Friday's U.S. jobs report commanded market attention, particularly given the drama surrounding August's release. That earlier report not only missed expectations significantly but also triggered substantial downward revisions to prior months' data. The numbers proved so weak that President Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, subsequently accusing her on social media of manipulating data to damage him and the Republican Party.

Markets reacted negatively both to the disappointing employment figures and Trump's firing of McEntarfer, raising concerns about presidential interference in federal statistical agencies. This potentially undermines trust in crucial economic data. These tensions heightened anxiety ahead of Friday's jobs report.

The data delivered another disappointment: nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, falling far short of the 76,500 consensus forecast. Meanwhile, unemployment climbed to 4.3%, marking the highest reading since 2021.

These figures paint a picture of an economy losing momentum and showing clear signs of weakness—troubling news for risk assets. Most markets sold off following Friday's disappointing report, though many have since recovered. This rebound may reflect relief that the numbers, while weak, were not catastrophically worse given the preceding political drama.

Chart 2: Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Balances

Shifting to more constructive developments, both Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange reserves continue their substantial decline. Year-to-date, total Bitcoin held on exchanges has dropped nearly 350,000 BTC—worth approximately $39 billion at current prices. Ethereum exchange balances have fallen over 2.6 million ETH, representing roughly $11.3 billion in value. Bitcoin exchange reserves have not been this low since 2018, while Ethereum balances have retreated to 2016 levels.

Declining exchange balances represent a bullish signal, indicating investors are moving coins into cold storage for long-term holding rather than keeping them on exchanges ready for immediate sale. This shift suggests growing conviction among holders and reduces readily available supply that could pressure prices.

A Number to Remember

10,000 Ether

The Ethereum community also criticized the Ethereum Foundation throughout 2024 and into early 2025 for a lack of transparency around its treasury management, particularly its sales of Ether reserves used to fund research and development. The Foundation appears to have absorbed these lessons, rolling out a new treasury strategy in June. Last week, it announced plans to sell 10,000 Ether, worth about $43 million, over the coming weeks to fund ongoing operations.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

  • U.S. Inflation Data This Week: The U.S. releases its Producer Price Index (PPI) Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Thursday. These inflation readings will substantially influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision the following week, making both releases critical market events. Lower inflation readings would support digital assets by increasing the likelihood of rate cuts.
  • ECB Rate Decision Ahead: The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its rate decision Thursday. Markets expect the ECB to hold its key interest rate steady at 2%, given eurozone inflation sits near the bank's 2% target. However, surprises remain possible.
  • ETF Flows Shift Back Toward Bitcoin: U.S. Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) suffered their largest weekly outflows to date at $787.7 million, while Bitcoin ETFs attracted $246.4 million in net inflows. Market participants appear to be rotating back toward Bitcoin after months of flows favoring Ethereum. We are monitoring whether this week's data confirms a new trend emerging.
Mads Eberhardt08/09/2025
Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.