Firi Weekly: Weekend Record

Bitcoin Hits All-Time High:
- Bitcoin reached a record $125,700 on Sunday, driven by the recent U.S. dollar rate cut, strong equity markets, robust U.S. ETF inflows, and October’s historically positive performance for crypto, among other factors.
U.S. Government Shutdown:
- The federal government shut down on October 1 after Congress failed to pass funding, costing $7 billion per week and halting non-essential services. So far, there has been no impact on the crypto market, though the shutdown delays potentially market-moving economic data releases.
Swift Adopts Blockchain Technology:
- Payment giant Swift has partnered with Consensys to launch an Ethereum-based blockchain for instant, 24/7 cross-border payments.
CME Launches 24/7 Crypto Trading:
- The world’s largest derivatives exchange will begin offering round-the-clock Bitcoin and Ethereum futures in 2026, eliminating weekend gaps for institutional traders.

Last Week’s Big Three

U.S. Federal Government Enters Shutdown Mode: The U.S. government ceased non-essential operations Tuesday, October 1, 2025, when Congress failed to reach consensus on funding legislation. This marks the first shutdown since the 35-day closure in December 2018. While essential services including Social Security and Medicare continue operating, hundreds of thousands of federal employees face furloughs. Economic analysts estimate the shutdown costs $7 billion weekly in direct fiscal impact, with prolonged closures potentially undermining consumer confidence and injecting volatility into financial markets.

Interestingly, crypto markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience since the shutdown began, with Bitcoin achieving its record high despite the political uncertainty. In hindsight, it appears that the crypto market may have overestimated shutdown risks in the days leading up to October 1, triggering a relief rally once the actual impact proved manageable.

Swift to Develop Blockchain: Swift announced a new blockchain that could reshape international finance. The Belgium-based cooperative, which processes payment instructions for 11,500 financial institutions globally, is developing the blockchain infrastructure in collaboration with over 30 major banks and Consensys, the Ethereum development firm founded by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin.

While initial announcements left implementation details ambiguous, Lubin confirmed three days later at an industry conference that Swift will utilize Linea, Consensys's Ethereum rollup solution. This clarification suggests Swift is embracing decentralized technology rather than building a closed system — a vote of confidence in public blockchain infrastructure from traditional finance's most critical payments network.

CME Group Extends Trading Hours to 24/7: The CME Group, operator of the world's largest financial derivatives exchanges, announced plans to offer continuous cryptocurrency futures and options trading starting early 2026, pending regulatory approval. Currently, CME's Bitcoin and Ethereum futures rank among the most liquid globally, particularly among institutional investors who value the exchange's robust regulatory framework.

This expansion addresses a persistent pain point for traditional finance participants: the weekend gap risk. When crypto markets trade 24/7 while futures markets close Friday evening, institutional traders face significant exposure if prices move dramatically over the weekend. This thereby eliminates a disadvantage of trading crypto derivatives on the CME relative to other options and could therefore potentially pave the way for greater institutional adoption.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies, Year-to-Date Performance

Bitcoin’s record-breaking surge to $125,700 on Sunday morning represents the culmination of multiple converging catalysts beyond the government shutdown dynamics discussed earlier. The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favorable, with the Federal Reserve delivering its first interest rate cut of 2025 a few weeks ago. Equity markets have responded positively — particularly technology stocks riding the artificial intelligence boom — creating a risk-on environment that traditionally benefits crypto assets.

Market structure improvements have also contributed to the rally. September’s deleveraging episode, while painful in the short term, likely cleansed the market of excessive speculation and reset positioning for healthier price appreciation. Last week, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs attracted robust inflows, while stablecoin market capitalization expanded, the latter historically correlating with positive crypto price action. Additionally, October’s reputation as a seasonally strong month for crypto likely attracted momentum-oriented capital.

Year to date, among the five largest cryptocurrencies, BNB leads with an impressive 73.3% gain. Ethereum follows with a 39.6% increase, marginally ahead of Bitcoin’s 32.3% return. XRP has gained 30.0%, while Solana lags with a 21.4% rise this year.

Chart 2: Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings

Bitcoin’s new all-time high also bodes well for the balance sheet of Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. The company’s 640,031 Bitcoin position now carries a market value of approximately $80.4 billion.

A Number to Remember

$3.24 billion

The U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second-highest weekly net inflow last week since launching in January 2024, attracting $3.24 billion in fresh capital. This surge in demand from more traditional investors was undoubtedly a key driver of Bitcoin’s recent rally.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

Government Shutdown Resolution Timeline: While crypto markets have weathered the shutdown's initial impact, resolution timing remains crucial. Beyond immediate market effects, the shutdown likely delays the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) — the federal agency that regulates financial markets — decisions on pending crypto ETF applications. As highlighted in last week's analysis, October could become "Crypto ETF October" with 16 applications facing final approval deadlines. However, these regulatory milestones may shift if the shutdown persists.
Delayed Jobs Report Creates Uncertainty: Friday's scheduled employment report was postponed due to the government shutdown, leaving markets without critical labor market data. Given recent jobs reports' tendency to trigger significant volatility, the eventual release could catalyze sharp moves across both traditional and crypto markets.
Fed Chair Powell's Thursday Address: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled Thursday speech takes on heightened importance as markets seek clarity on monetary policy direction. With futures markets pricing a 94.6% probability of another 25 basis-point rate cut at the October 29 Federal Reserve meeting, any deviation from this expectation could drive significant repricing across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Mads Eberhardt06/10/2025

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.