Firi Weekly: Trump Got His Deal

Firi Weekly: Trump Got His Deal

  • U.S.-China Trade Deal Reached in South Korea:
    • Trump and Xi agreed to postpone China's rare-earth export controls for one year, with Trump reducing tariffs and backing away from his threatened 100% tariffs.
  • Western Union Launches Stablecoin On Solana:
    • Western Union announced the Dollar Payment Token (USDPT) on Solana, targeting a launch in the first half of 2026.
  • U.S. Solana ETFs Begin Trading:
    • The first physical U.S. Solana ETFs from Bitwise and Grayscale attracted $199.2 million in net inflows last week, while Litecoin and Hedera ETFs also made their debut.
  • Federal Reserve Cuts Rates, Ends Quantitative Tightening:
    • The Fed, America's central bank, cut interest rates by 0.25% and announced it will end quantitative tightening by December 1, 2025, but was more pessimistic about potential future rate cuts.

Last Week’s Big Three

The U.S. and China Reach a Deal: Last Thursday, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea for their first face-to-face since Trump's return to the White House in January. The agenda centered on the escalating tensions around tariffs and China's recent restrictions on rare-earth material exports. Under the agreement, China will postpone these export controls for one year. China also committed to increasing U.S. soybean imports. In exchange, Trump shelved a proposed expansion of the export blacklist that would have added thousands of Chinese companies and reduced certain tariffs on China, particularly those targeting fentanyl precursor drugs. Crucially, he also walked back from implementing the threatened 100% tariffs that were set to hit on November 1st.

This outcome clearly benefits both nations and reduces near-term uncertainty. Yet markets barely reacted, likely because the deal was widely anticipated following days of increasingly optimistic headlines. That expectation may help explain why crypto prices declined last week—a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news.”

Looking beyond the immediate relief, several uncertainties linger. Most notably, China's commitment to delay rare-earth export controls extends only twelve months. That one-year clock creates a significant overhang in the medium to long term.

Western Union Announces Stablecoin On Solana: Last week, the money transfer giant Western Union revealed plans to launch its own stablecoin on Solana, issued by Anchorage Digital Bank. The Dollar Payment Token (USDPT) is slated for launch in the first half of 2026. Western Union also plans to roll out what it is calling the Digital Asset Network, designed to bridge digital assets with real-world utility.

Western Union's entry marks yet another traditional financial institution launching a stablecoin this year. From an adoption standpoint, that is undeniably positive. However, each new stablecoin further fragments an already fragmented landscape. Network effects and liquidity—already diluted across multiple blockchains—become even more dispersed, which introduces challenges.

U.S. Solana ETF Begins Trading: Speaking of Solana, the first U.S.-based physical Solana ETFs went live last week. Structured similarly to the now-familiar U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, these products had been highly anticipated by the market. Bitwise kicked things off Tuesday with its staking Solana ETF, followed by Grayscale's Solana Trust ETF on Wednesday, both of which have the underlying Solana staked. Last week also saw launches of U.S.-based ETFs for Litecoin and Hedera.

These launches matter because they open a door for more traditional investors—those who prefer the familiar structure of exchange-traded products—to gain exposure to Solana and other cryptocurrencies easily and in a user-friendly way.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Daily U.S. Solana ETFs Net Flow

Firi illustration

The two new U.S. Solana ETFs pulled in a solid $199.2 million in net inflows during their first week of trading last week.

Chart 2: U.S. Dollar and EURO Interest Rates

Firi illustration

Last week brought the expected monetary policy decisions from both sides of the Atlantic. The Federal Reserve cut the U.S. Dollar interest rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) for the second time this year, while the European Central Bank (ECB), the eurozone's central bank, held its rate steady on Thursday. Neither move surprised markets.

What arguably matters more is the Fed’s announcement that it will end quantitative tightening by December 1. Quantitative tightening—when the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and effectively pulls liquidity out of the economy by reducing the dollar supply—has been a headwind for risk assets. Both the rate cut and the end of this tightening regime should, in theory, benefit digital assets. However, the Fed expressed more negative views on potential future rate cuts than the market had expected.

That said, there is a complicating factor: the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is actually draining dollar liquidity from the economy due to technical quirks in how the Fed and shutdowns interact. This liquidity drain could explain why we have seen crypto prices decrease recently. It is also possible that last week's rate cut functioned as a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event—much like the Fed's September cut appeared to.

A Number to Remember

2026

In 2022, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), the international body that sets global banking standards, published landmark guidance on crypto exposure for banks. The rules were exceptionally strict—so punitive that holding digital assets on bank balance sheets became prohibitively expensive, with even stablecoins treated as harshly as Bitcoin and Ether. According to Bloomberg, however, BCBS will reportedly revise these guidelines in 2026 to adopt a more favorable stance toward banks holding crypto, particularly stablecoins.

On Our Radar

Here is what we are watching this week:

  • When Will the U.S. Shutdown End? We are closely monitoring developments around the U.S. government shutdown and any signs of progress among politicians, though meaningful movement remains scarce. Ending the shutdown should improve dollar liquidity over time, which would be supportive of risk assets.
  • What Is the Appetite For the Solana ETFs? We will be tracking flows into the newly launched U.S. Solana ETFs throughout this week and beyond to gauge whether traditional investors demonstrate the same enthusiasm for Solana that they have shown for the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
  • More Interest Rate Decisions: On Thursday, November 6, the Bank of England (BoE), which sets monetary policy for the British pound, will announce its rate decision. Markets expect the BoE to hold rates steady, though there is an outside chance of a cut.
Portrait of Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst at Firi.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 04/11/2025

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.