Firi Weekly: Hot Inflation

Firi Weekly: Hot Inflation

  • U.S. Clarity Act Faces Key Vote:
    • The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on the Clarity Act on Thursday. The highly anticipated crypto regulation bill could strengthen customer protections, provide U.S. crypto firms with clearer rules, and lead to more crypto adoption by traditional financial firms. Even if it passes the committee, further hurdles remain, but the bill would move meaningfully closer to becoming law.
  • Lagarde Pushes Back on Stablecoins:
    • European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde argued last week that stablecoins offer limited benefits in Europe and could create financial stability risks, despite comprehensive European stablecoin regulation and planned euro-stablecoin launches by at least 12 major European banks. It is safe to say that Lagarde is still not a fan of stablecoins.
  • Hot Inflation Pressures the Crypto Market:
    • U.S. consumer inflation (CPI) rose 3.8% year-over-year in April, which is the highest level in three years. This is mainly due to higher energy prices linked to the war in the Middle East. It reduces the likelihood of dollar interest rate cuts and makes risk assets like crypto less attractive for investors compared with lower-risk investments.
  • Tokenized Real-World Assets Expand:
    • Real-world assets issued on blockchains continue growing, increasing by 49.6%, or $10.7 billion, year-to-date alone, as equities, commodities, and debt are increasingly tokenized. This could accelerate further if U.S. crypto rules become clearer through the passing of the U.S. Clarity Act.

Last Week’s Big Three

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee Will Vote on the Clarity Act: There was positive news on the U.S. Clarity Act about a week and a half ago, when U.S. banks and crypto firms finally reached a compromise on whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay interest or rewards, as we noted in last week’s Firi Weekly. The bill is expected to create clearer regulation for the U.S. crypto industry. Among other things, it could strengthen customer protections, improve operating conditions for crypto businesses, and make it easier for traditional financial institutions to engage more deeply with crypto.

Last week, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee scheduled a discussion and vote on the Clarity Act markup for this Thursday, followed by the committee’s public release of the bill earlier this week

In the meantime, American banks and their lobby organizations spent much of last week arguing that the compromise should be tightened further. As a result, it is not certain that the bill will pass the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Even if it does, several obstacles still remain before the Clarity Act can potentially become law. We are following closely what happens on Thursday. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that developments in recent weeks have been quite positive and have brought us closer to the Clarity Act than ever before.

Christine Lagarde Is (Still) Not a Stablecoin Fan: European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said in a speech on Friday, later published on the ECB’s website, that there are limited arguments for promoting stablecoins in Europe, including euro-denominated stablecoins. In her view, the technological case for stablecoins can be replicated by central bank infrastructure. Her comments came even as at least 12 major European banks are expected to launch a euro-stablecoin later this year.

Lagarde also argued that stablecoins can pose financial stability risks. In a period of market stress, mass redemptions could create a self-reinforcing cycle of further redemptions and potential turmoil. She also said stablecoins could lead to deposit outflows from banks and other financial institutions that play a central role in lending to productive parts of the economy, including European companies.

There are many points in Lagarde’s speech that would be worth addressing in this note, but doing so would make it too long. Ultimately, the risks of anything new in the financial industry should never be underestimated. That said, it is worth noting that stablecoins available in Europe are already heavily regulated under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which addresses these risks in considerable detail.

It is worth discussing Lagarde’s argument that the ECB can effectively achieve the same outcome with its future digital euro, also known as a central bank digital currency (CBDC), meaning digital money issued directly by a central bank. We doubt the ECB can replicate the success stablecoins have had over the past few years, for several reasons. The Digital Euro will not launch before 2029 at the earliest, it will run on ECB infrastructure that is neither global nor open by design, and it may only be available to banks and other financial institutions rather than end users, among other limitations. In other words, unsurprisingly, we do not agree with Lagarde’s overall take.

Morgan Stanley’s E*TRADE Launches Crypto Trading: E*TRADE, the large U.S. brokerage owned by Morgan Stanley, one of the world’s largest investment banks, announced last week that it will launch crypto trading later this year for its 8.6 million clients. This follows the launch of crypto trading a few weeks ago by another U.S. broker, Charles Schwab, which has around 39.1 million clients.

E*TRADE’s parent company, Morgan Stanley, also launched its first U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) only a few weeks ago. It surely appears that one of the world’s largest investment banks is gradually but steadily expanding its crypto offering across the board.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: U.S. Consumer (CPI) Inflation Rate Year-over-Year

Firi illustration

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which tracks price changes across the U.S. economy, released April consumer inflation data on Tuesday this week. The data showed a 3.8% year-over-year increase. It was the highest U.S. inflation reading in three years, since May 2023, and a notable jump from March’s 3.3% annual inflation print.

The increase was mainly driven by higher energy prices, which have risen sharply since the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East. The strait is a key route for transporting a large share of the world’s oil and gas supply, and the lower supply of energy on global markets has therefore pushed prices higher.

Higher inflation is typically negative for digital assets because it makes the U.S. Federal Reserve less likely to cut dollar interest rates. In practice, that means much lower-risk investments, such as U.S. government bonds, become more attractive to investors at the expense of crypto. The immediate aftermath of the inflation print was indeed negative for crypto prices after several weeks of positive returns.

Chart 2: Total Real-World Assets (RWAs) Supply

Firi illustration

On a more positive note, the total supply of real-world assets (RWAs) has increased by 49.6%, or $10.7 billion, year to date. This process is also known as tokenization. It refers to traditional assets, such as equities, commodities, and debt, being issued on public blockchains. Once issued on blockchains such as Ethereum or Solana, these instruments can be traded and used across a broader ecosystem of decentralized applications.

This growth is especially driven by developments in the United States and is expected to accelerate further should the CLARITY Act pass.

A Number to Remember

+50 Firms

Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a leading U.S. financial market infrastructure company, announced last week that it will begin limited live trades of tokenized assets in July, with a broader platform launch planned for October. The initiative involves collaboration with more than 50 firms, including some of the largest investment banks, such as BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan.

DTCC is a central part of the U.S. financial infrastructure and helps register, settle, and keep track of trades in stocks and corporate bonds. The company processes transactions worth hundreds of trillions of dollars every year.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

  • Progress on the Clarity Act: There now appears to be a new development in the U.S. Clarity Act every week, and this week is likely to bring another one. We are watching closely because the bill is likely to affect the crypto market.
  • How the Situation in the Middle East Develops: When it comes to inflation, the war in the Middle East is a key factor in determining where inflation goes from here. We are watching the situation closely, even though the flow of news on this front has become increasingly limited.
  • Will Kevin Warsh Be Confirmed? In late January, U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to take over as Federal Reserve chair after current Chair Jerome Powell. Warsh has not yet been officially confirmed as the new Fed chair, as he still needs a full Senate confirmation vote. That could happen as soon as this week, and may bring some calm to the Fed after months of back-and-forth on several issues.
Portrait of Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst at Firi.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 13/05/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.