Firi Weekly: A Tough First Half of the Year

Firi Weekly: A Tough First Half of the Year

  • Crypto Market Suffers Weak First Half:
    • Bitcoin ended the first half of 2026 down about 33.1%, while Ethereum fell roughly 47.1%. Over the same period, total cryptocurrency market capitalization declined 31.3%, from $2.94 trillion to $2.02 trillion. The weak performance appears to reflect several pressures, including capital rotation into AI-related equities, inflation concerns, delayed interest-rate cuts, four-year-cycle fears, and worries that digital asset treasury firms could eventually become forced sellers.
  • Clarity Act Faces Tight Senate Timeline:
    • The U.S. Clarity Act, intended to clarify crypto regulation and improve customer protections, may miss its 2026 passage window unless the Senate acts before its August recess. Prediction markets now assign only a 40% chance it becomes law this year.
  • SBI Holdings Plans Bitbank Acquisition:
    • Japanese financial services group SBI Holdings said last week that it plans to acquire crypto exchange Bitbank for about $289 million, with the deal expected to close in October, pending regulatory approval. The move follows SBI’s earlier Bitpoint purchase and signals continued crypto expansion by one of Japan’s major finance groups.
  • Digital Euro Clears Parliamentary Committee:
    • The European Parliament’s ECON committee approved the legal framework for a digital euro, allowing the European Central Bank (ECB) to begin a 12-month pilot phase using a beta version. A possible 2029 launch would position the central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a potential competitor to stablecoins. In contrast, the U.S. Senate has moved toward a four-year ban on CBDCs, largely due to privacy concerns.

Last Week’s Big Three

Will the U.S. Clarity Act Soon Come to a Vote? During the first half of the year, the U.S. Clarity Act has been one of the main topics in the crypto market. The bill is designed to give the U.S. crypto industry clearer rules. Among other things, it could strengthen customer protections, improve the operating environment for crypto companies, and make it easier for traditional financial institutions to engage more deeply with digital assets.

The market has been waiting for the Clarity Act throughout the year, but several issues have slowed progress between the different stakeholders. These include Republicans, Democrats, traditional financial institutions, crypto companies, and others. One key point of disagreement was whether crypto firms should be allowed to pay interest on stablecoin holdings. That issue was resolved in May, but other questions remain, including ethics rules around how publicly elected officials may interact with digital assets.

The next step is a full Senate vote. The Senate is on break until July 13, although the parties can still work on the remaining issues before then. Many now seem to agree that the bill needs to pass the Senate before lawmakers leave for another break in the third week of August if it is to become law this year, as the November midterm elections will complicate matters later. As a result, the risk that the Clarity Act does not become law in 2026 has increased. Prediction markets now give it a 40% chance of passing this year, which implies a 60% chance that it does not.

Major Japanese Financial Services Group Acquires Crypto Exchange: SBI Holdings, a major Japanese financial services group, announced last week that it intends to acquire Japanese crypto exchange Bitbank for around $289 million. SBI expects the transaction to close in October, subject to regulatory approval.

SBI has already bought another crypto exchange, Bitpoint, and the company is generally known for being positive toward cryptocurrencies. The Bitbank acquisition is therefore not especially surprising. Still, it is a positive signal that a large financial conglomerate is continuing to deepen its exposure to crypto.

The Digital Euro Passes a Key Hurdle: Last Tuesday, the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) committee voted to approve the legal framework for a digital euro. This would be a central bank digital currency, or CBDC: a currency issued directly by a central bank on its own centralized infrastructure. In principle, CBDCs can be used without extra financial intermediaries such as banks or credit card issuers. The digital euro could be introduced by 2029, with the European Central Bank (ECB) now set to run a 12-month pilot phase using a beta version.

The approval from the European Parliament came as the U.S. Senate voted to place a four-year ban on CBDCs, largely because of privacy concerns. To some extent, the digital euro would compete with stablecoins issued on public blockchains. How directly it competes will depend on several factors, including the launch timeline, how the digital euro works in practice, and whether it becomes widely available.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum Price, Year-to-Date

Firi illustration

We are closing the first half of 2026 by looking back at the price performance of the two largest cryptocurrencies by far: Bitcoin and Ethereum. It has been a difficult first half. Bitcoin ended the period down about 33.1%, while Ethereum fell around 47.1%. Over the same period, total crypto market capitalization declined by roughly 31.3%, from $2.94 trillion to $2.02 trillion.

In our view, several factors have weighed on the crypto market in 2026. First, a meaningful amount of speculative capital appears to have moved from crypto into equities, especially AI-related stocks. Many investors seem to have found stronger investment narratives in AI than in crypto, a shift amplified by the natural overlap between crypto investors and investors in the more speculative parts of the equity market.

At the same time, the war in the Middle East has pushed inflation higher and made central banks around the world less willing to cut interest rates. That is negative for digital assets because it makes lower-risk investments relatively more attractive.

There is also a chance that the long-running "four-year cycle" is playing a role again. Historically, crypto markets have tended to peak in a roughly four-year rhythm. So far, this potential cycle has tracked that pattern fairly closely, with the market peaking in October last year, roughly when the four-year cycle would have suggested, followed by a more prolonged decline.

Another concern this year has been the risk that some digital asset treasury companies, including Strategy and BitMine, could eventually be forced to sell part of their crypto holdings. That could create significant selling pressure. Even the fear of such selling may be enough to keep some potential investors from allocating capital, or from adding more, to crypto.

A Number to Remember

$7.1 billion

During June, total stablecoin supply decreased by $7.1 billion, or about 2.22%, to around $312.3 billion.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the weeks ahead:

  • Will the Clarity Act Move Closer to Passing? We are watching for progress on the U.S. Clarity Act over the next few weeks. The bill likely needs to move meaningfully in the near term if it is to pass this year.
  • Will Stablecoin Supply Keep Falling? Stablecoin supply is a cornerstone of the crypto industry, both because of the role stablecoins play within crypto markets and because of their unique utility outside crypto. We will continue to monitor stablecoin supply closely.
  • Will U.S. Crypto ETF Outflows Continue? The U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have had a difficult stretch recently, with large outflows creating additional selling pressure. We are watching whether this trend continues or starts to reverse, as it is an important signal of crypto interest among more traditional investors.
Portrait of Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst at Firi.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 03/07/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.