Firi Weekly: A Bleeding Market

Firi Weekly: A Bleeding Market

  • Crypto Market Capitalization Drops 38.5%:
    • The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen from $2.97 trillion to $2.11 trillion year-to-date, a 38.5% decline. Last week, Bitcoin traded as low as $59,100, its lowest level since October 2024, while Ethereum fell to $1,506, its lowest since April 2025, amid rotation toward equities, especially AI-related stocks.
  • Strong U.S. Jobs Report Pressures Crypto:
    • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 172,000 new nonfarm payrolls in May, with March and April hiring revised upward. The strongest three-month labor-market stretch in more than two years may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, weighing on risk assets such as crypto.
  • Major U.S. Banks Plan Tokenized Deposit Network:
    • JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and other large U.S. banks are reportedly planning a shared tokenized deposit network for launch in the second half of 2027. The system could help banks keep deposits inside the banking sector while offering blockchain-style settlement features that compete with stablecoins.
  • Zcash Falls After Severe Bug Disclosure:
    • Zcash dropped sharply after researchers found a severe bug that could have allowed unlimited token minting without detection. The flaw had been in the code since May 2022, was discovered on May 29, and fixed on June 1. Zcash fell 25% Thursday and nearly 20% Friday, while exploitation remains unknown.

Last Week’s Big Three

Major U.S. Banks Plan Shared Tokenized Deposit Network: According to the Wall Street Journal, several of the largest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup, are planning to launch a shared tokenized deposit network. Internally, the banks reportedly refer to the network as either “the bridge” or “the chain”. It is planned for launch in the second half of 2027.

Tokenized deposits are similar to stablecoins in that they represent traditional currencies issued on blockchains such as Ethereum. The difference is effectively where the underlying money sits. Tokenized deposits represent customer money held at a bank. Stablecoins are typically backed by funds held with the issuer, which often invests those funds in short-term government bonds.

The banks’ tokenized deposit network is reportedly intended to keep deposits within the banking system while giving them blockchain-like functionality. This could help banks reduce the risk of deposit flight to stablecoins that can be used onchain, meaning directly on blockchain networks. We still need more detail on how the network will work, and which blockchains it may use. Still, the plan indicates that major banks are taking a positive approach to crypto.

Zcash Drops Substantially After Severe Bug Disclosure: Zcash, the largest privacy-focused cryptocurrency by market capitalization, had an extremely difficult week. Its market capitalization was about $8.7 billion when researchers announced a previously undisclosed severe bug in its code on Wednesday evening. The flaw could have allowed an attacker to mint unlimited Zcash tokens without anyone noticing.

The bug had been present in Zcash's code since May 2022. It was discovered on May 29, and a fix was implemented a few days later, on June 1. Because of the nature of the bug and Zcash's privacy features, no one knows whether it was actually exploited.

Zcash fell 25% on Thursday, shortly after the bug was made public, and a further 20% on Friday. It has since recovered some of those losses. Bugs of this severity are rare, but the episode highlights a core risk of cryptocurrencies: when something goes wrong in the code, the consequences can be substantial.

Strong U.S. Jobs Report Pressures Crypto: On Friday last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000, while hiring figures for both April and March were revised higher. Combined, the data showed that the U.S. labor market had its strongest three-month stretch in more than two years.

The strong labor market suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed), the U.S. central bank, does not need to be overly concerned about employment. That reduces the case for cutting U.S. interest rates and increases the risk that rates stay higher, or potentially move higher. This comes after inflation rose following the energy shock, particularly the increase in gas and oil prices linked to the war in the Middle East, which has also reduced the chances of lower interest rates.

In general, higher interest rates are negative for digital assets. When safer investments offer higher returns, investors have less incentive to take risk in assets such as crypto.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices, Year-to-Date

Firi illustration

Last week was quite brutal for the crypto market. Bitcoin traded as low as about $59,100, while Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, traded as low as $1,506. Bitcoin reached that low on Thursday, while Ethereum reached its low on Friday. For Bitcoin, this was the lowest level since October 2024. For Ethereum, it was the lowest level since April 2025.

The declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum followed what appears to be a rotation from crypto into equities, especially AI-related equities, over the past few months. AI-related stocks currently have a narrative that crypto appears unable to match for investors, at least for now. This has happened alongside the higher inflation backdrop discussed above.

The crypto market’s traditional four-year cycle may also still be playing a role in the background. The four-year cycle refers to the historical pattern where the crypto market tends to set a new all-time high every fourth year, followed by a longer period of declining prices. That pattern broadly matches what we have seen this year, with a downtrending market following the all-time highs in Bitcoin and Ethereum in October last year.

Chart 2: Total Crypto Market Capitalization

Firi illustration

The downtrend is also clear in total cryptocurrency market capitalization, of which Bitcoin and Ethereum account for a large share. The total has declined sharply year-to-date, falling 38.5% from $2.97 trillion to $2.11 trillion.

A Number to Remember

1,550 bitcoins

Last week, Strategy acquired 1,550 bitcoins for approximately $101 million. The purchase was announced on Monday this week. It followed Strategy’s second-ever sale last week, when the world’s largest corporate owner of bitcoin sold 32 bitcoins worth about $2.5 million.

That sale worried the broader crypto market. The concern was not the size of the sale itself, but that investors appeared to grow more concerned that selling by Strategy could become more common. Further selling by Strategy could have meaningful market consequences, given that the company owns about 843,706 bitcoins worth roughly $51.9 billion.

Strategy’s subsequent purchase appears to have calmed the market somewhat. Still, the crypto market only moved slightly higher after this week’s purchase announcement.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

  • SpaceX IPO Tests the Crypto Market: According to the plan, SpaceX, the aerospace and artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk, is expected to go public on Friday in what would be the largest IPO ever. Crypto investors may have sold some of their holdings over the past few weeks to free up capital for the IPO. We will watch the IPO closely, including how crypto markets react and whether investors continue to pull capital from crypto into SpaceX or potentially rotate back into crypto afterward.
  • Could OpenAI and Anthropic Go Public Next? OpenAI and Anthropic, arguably the two leading AI companies globally, also appear to have filed to go public recently. Both IPOs could come as soon as August or later this fall. There is a risk that capital could also rotate out of crypto and into these offerings. We will monitor developments closely to see when these listings may take place.
  • ETF Outflows Show Heavy Selling Pressure: Last week, the U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended a record 13-day outflow streak, while the U.S. Ethereum ETFs ended a record 17-day outflow streak. During these periods, the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $4.4 billion, while the Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $900.5 million. At least these record outflow streaks have now come to an end. We will watch closely to see whether inflows can continue. Nonetheless, the selling pressure from these ETFs has been substantial in recent weeks.
Portrait of Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst at Firi.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 10/06/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.