Firi Weekly: The Market Turns Quiet

Inflation Eases in the U.S:
- U.S. consumer inflation fell to 2.4% year-over-year, versus 2.5% expected, yet markets assign only a 9.9% probability of a March interest-rate cut by the U.S. central bank. The crypto market traded largely sideways last week and did not react significantly to the lower inflation.
Danske Bank Opens Crypto ETP Access:
- Denmark’s largest bank now offers Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products, citing rising demand and improved regulation. This signals stronger acceptance across the Nordics.
U.S. Clarity Act Faces Political Deadline:
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges passage of the U.S. Clarity Act this spring. If it is delayed beyond the 2026 midterms, it could stall the establishment of clear crypto rules and affect banks’ ability to engage legally with digital assets.
Boerse Stuttgart Expands Institutional Crypto Unit:
- Boerse Stuttgart Digital will merge with Tradias, forming a 300-employee regulated platform offering trading, custody, staking, and tokenization services to European financial institutions.

Last Week’s Big Three

Danske Bank Opens the Door for Crypto: Danske Bank, the largest bank in Denmark and one of the largest in the Nordics, announced last week that it now allows trading in a limited number of exchange-traded products (ETPs) tracking Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies. The bank cited rising customer demand and improved regulation as the main drivers behind the decision.

From a technological standpoint, the launch is modest, as it covers only ETPs. However, given Danske Bank’s size and regional influence, the announcement carries significant signaling value. It reflects how far the crypto market has matured in recent years and underscores broader institutional acceptance in the Nordics.

Bessent Comments on the Clarity Act: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that crypto market sentiment could improve once the U.S. Clarity Act is passed. The proposed legislation aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto industry and provide clear rules for firms operating in the space.

The bill was delayed in January amid reported lobbying efforts. Some crypto firms are pushing to permit rewards for holding stablecoins, while certain U.S. banks are said to oppose parts of the proposal.

Bessent stressed the importance of passing the Act this spring. If delayed, shifting political dynamics ahead of the 2026 midterm elections could push the legislation further out, particularly if Democrats regain ground relative to Republicans. It is widely expected that clear regulation supports crypto adoption and make it easier for banks to participate in the market within a defined legal environment.

Boerse Stuttgart and Tradias Combine Forces: Boerse Stuttgart Group, which operates one of Europe’s largest stock exchanges, announced on Friday that it will merge its crypto subsidiary, Boerse Stuttgart Digital, with Frankfurt-based trading firm Tradias to create a larger regulated institutional crypto platform.

The combined entity, with roughly 300 employees, will offer an integrated suite of services including trading, custody, staking, and tokenized asset solutions for banks, brokers, and other financial institutions. The transaction highlights how major European financial institutions continue to expand their exposure to digital assets.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: U.S. Consumer (CPI) Inflation Rate Year-over-Year

The crypto market traded broadly flat last week in relatively quiet conditions, following several weeks of declines. At the same time, U.S. macro data surprised modestly to the upside. January consumer price inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), came in at 2.4% year over year, below the 2.5% expected and down from 2.7% in December.

This matters for crypto and other risk assets because inflation is a key input for the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. In general, lower inflation supports the case for lower interest rates over time. Lower rates tend to reduce returns on cash and other low-risk instruments, encouraging investors to allocate more capital to higher-risk assets.

When the data was released on Friday, crypto initially moved higher. However, prices gradually retraced and returned to pre-release levels.

Chart 2: Total Real-World Asset (RWA) Supply

In another constructive development, the total supply of Real-World Assets (RWAs) on public blockchains has risen 18% year to date, increasing from approximately $21.1 billion to $24.9 billion. This growth has occurred despite a broader decline in the crypto market over the same period.

RWAs include tokenized equities, commodities, debt instruments, and other traditional financial assets issued on blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana. Tokenization allows these assets to be transferred globally within minutes and used in decentralized applications, including trading and lending platforms, without traditional intermediaries.

A Number to Remember

9.9%

Despite the softer-than-expected inflation print, markets currently assign only a 9.9% probability to a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on March 18. Conversely, markets expect with a 90.1% likelihood that the interest rate will remain unchanged.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

Will Risk Appetite Return? Risk sentiment has been weak not only in crypto but also in equities, particularly in artificial intelligence and technology-related stocks. This broader softness has weighed on digital assets. We are watching closely for signs of a rebound in risk appetite, which would likely support crypto.
Any News on the U.S. Clarity Act? We continue to monitor developments around the U.S. Clarity Act and whether the relevant parties can agree on a final framework. Progress toward passage could provide short-term support for the crypto market.
Expectations For Future Potential Interest Rate Cuts: Following January’s lower-than-expected inflation reading, we are assessing whether markets begin to price in additional rate cuts in the U.S. over the coming months.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 18/02/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.