Firi Weekly: A Nordic Stablecoin

Fed Rate Decision Expected Wednesday:
- Markets are pricing in an 89.4% probability of a 0.25-percentage-point cut. The outcome, along with the Federal Reserve's (Fed) commentary on economic conditions, will likely influence near-term sentiment across digital assets.
European Banks Name Their Stablecoin "Qivalis":
- Ten major banks, including Danske Bank and Sweden's SEB, plan to launch this euro-denominated stablecoin in the second half of 2026. The European Central Bank (ECB) has reportedly expressed support for the initiative.
Vanguard Reverses Course on Crypto ETFs:
- The world's second-largest asset manager now permits clients to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking a significant departure from its historically skeptical stance on digital assets.
Record $8.6 Billion in Crypto Acquisitions:
- Industry deal activity through November has already surpassed the previous four years combined, reflecting both sector consolidation and growing institutional confidence as regulatory frameworks become clearer.

Last Week’s Big Three

Qivalis Gets Its Name: Back in September, nine major European banks announced plans to launch a euro-denominated stablecoin in the second half of 2026. The consortium, which includes Danske Bank (Denmark's largest bank) and Sweden's SEB, revealed last week that the project will be called Qivalis. Since the original announcement, French banking giant BNP Paribas has joined the initiative, bringing the total to ten participating institutions. Floris Lugt, who will serve as Qivalis's CFO, noted that the group has been in contact with the European Central Bank (ECB), which has been "very supportive" of the plan.

This development carries real significance for the Nordic crypto landscape. Having two major Nordic banks among the founding members lends credibility to digital asset infrastructure in Scandinavia. With a name now attached, the project feels considerably more tangible.

Vanguard Opens the Door to Crypto ETFs: Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset manager by assets under management, announced last Monday that it would finally allow clients to trade crypto ETFs, including the U.S.-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum products. Trading reportedly went live the following day.

The timing is notable given Vanguard's history as one of the industry's more vocal crypto skeptics. It seems client demand simply became impossible to ignore. This reversal carries meaningful signal value: when a firm of Vanguard's stature changes course, it tends to validate the asset class for other traditional players still on the fence. We have seen a similar dynamic unfold in the Nordics recently, where banks and financial institutions that were once hostile to crypto have grown considerably more receptive.

A Record Year for Crypto Acquisitions: While 2025 may not go down as the most explosive year for digital asset prices, the industry is setting records elsewhere. According to PitchBook data, crypto-sector acquisitions have reached $8.6 billion through November 20, an all-time high. To put that in perspective, this figure exceeds the combined deal value of the previous four years.

The surge in activity likely reflects two forces working in tandem: natural industry consolidation and growing optimism about the regulatory environment. As frameworks become clearer and institutional adoption accelerates, strategic buyers appear increasingly willing to deploy capital.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, Year-to-Date Performance

Last week brought relatively muted price action across crypto markets. Bitcoin slipped roughly 1.2% over the week, while Ethereum eked out a modest 0.3% gain. U.S. equities fared somewhat better: the S&P 500 closed the week up about 0.39%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 posted a 1.36% advance.

These equity benchmarks have increasingly served as a proxy for broader market risk sentiment, including in crypto, though last week saw a slight divergence as stocks outperformed digital assets.

Chart 2: Total Stablecoin Supply

One metric that has not been flat is total stablecoin supply. After dipping alongside crypto prices earlier in the quarter, supply has recovered and now sits just below the all-time high of roughly $309 billion reached in October. What is interesting here is the timing: stablecoin supply is rebounding even as crypto prices remain well off their peaks.

The most plausible explanation is that stablecoins are finding growing utility beyond crypto trading. Cross-border payments, remittances, and treasury management use cases continue to expand, supporting demand independent of speculative activity.

A Number to Remember

$120 million

That is the value of Ether moved last week by an Ethereum address that had been dormant for nearly a decade. The 40,000 Ether was originally acquired around Ethereum's launch in July 2015. Rather than selling into the market, the owner chose to stake the position.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

U.S. Interest Rate Decision: The Fed announces its policy decision tomorrow, Wednesday, December 10th. Markets are assigning an 89.4% probability to a 25-basis-point (0.25%) cut.
Fed Commentary Will Matter: The rate decision itself is only half the story. Equally important will be the Fed's tone regarding the U.S. economy. If policymakers signal concern about growth or inflation persistence, markets could interpret even a rate cut as a negative signal.
Solana Breakpoint Conference: Solana's flagship annual conference runs Thursday through Saturday (December 11–13) in Abu Dhabi. We will be watching for meaningful protocol updates, ecosystem announcements, or partnership news that could move sentiment around Solana.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 09/12/2025

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.