Firi Weekly: A Tough Week

Firi Weekly: A Tough Week

  • U.S. Government Shutdown Nears Resolution:
    • After Congress failed to pass the 2026 budget, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history became a reality. Uncertainty over the economic fallout and missing key data have rattled crypto markets.
  • Ripple Raises $500 Million at Landmark Valuation:
    • The company behind XRP has raised $500 million at a $40 billion valuation, led by Fortress Investment Group and Citadel Securities, as it expands further into stablecoins and custody services.
  • Over Half of Hedge Funds Now Hold Crypto:
    • A survey of 122 hedge funds managing $982 billion in assets shows that 55% now invest in crypto—up from 47% in 2024—with 71% planning to increase exposure over the next year.
  • Major Outflows from Crypto ETFs:
    • The U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.21 billion in outflows, while the Ethereum ETFs lost $507.7 million last week. Newly launched U.S. Solana ETFs, however, attracted $136.6 million despite overall market turbulence.

Last Week’s Big Three

Markets Strained as U.S. Shutdown Drags On: On Tuesday, October 1st, the U.S. government entered a shutdown that halted all non-essential operations after Congress failed to reach an agreement on 2026 funding legislation. What has followed is now the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

The past week in particular has shaken investors, largely because the economic implications remain unclear. We are talking about potentially slower growth and reduced visibility into key economic indicators—for example, employment data have not been published during the shutdown. This uncertainty has hit riskier assets especially hard over recent weeks, with digital assets bearing the brunt of the selloff, as the first chart below illustrates.

There's reason for cautious optimism, though. Over the weekend and into Monday, it appears U.S. politicians are finally moving toward a deal to end the shutdown. The breakthrough came Sunday evening when the Senate voted 60-40 on a procedural measure to advance temporary funding legislation. Monday brought further progress when the White House expressed support for the bipartisan deal to end the impasse. At this point, it is expected that the shutdown will conclude by week's end.

Ripple Raises $500 Million at $40 Billion Valuation: Ripple, the crypto company behind XRP, announced last week that it raised $500 million at a $40 billion valuation. Fortress Investment Group and Citadel Securities led the round, with participation from Pantera Capital, Galaxy Digital, Brevan Howard, and Marshall Wace.

While Ripple built its reputation on XRP, the company has substantially broadened its footprint across the crypto ecosystem in recent years, moving into stablecoins, digital asset custody, and brokerage services.

Over Half of Hedge Funds Now Invest in Crypto: According to new survey data from the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA), 55% of traditional hedge funds currently hold crypto assets as of 2025—up from 47% in 2024. The survey captured responses from 122 hedge fund managers collectively overseeing $982 billion in assets.

AIMA found that hedge funds allocate an average of 7% of their portfolios to crypto assets. Also, 71% of respondents plan to increase their allocations over the next year. The data makes clear that institutional investors are steadily increasing their investment in crypto.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies, Year-to-Date Performance

Firi illustration

Digital assets have had a rough few weeks. From the start of November through the end of Sunday, Bitcoin dropped 4.45%, Ethereum fell 7.16%, XRP declined 6.18%, BNB slid 8.66%, and Solana tumbled 12.34%.

Beyond the recent turmoil surrounding the U.S. government, another significant factor behind the decline is likely the growing belief among market participants that we are approaching another four-year cycle peak. Historically, crypto markets have peaked every four years. If this pattern holds, the market should be topping out around now. Many traders appear to be positioning for this outcome, which has presumably generated selling pressure.

For the year, Bitcoin is up 13.19%, Ethereum has gained 5.87%, XRP is ahead 8.68%, BNB has surged 33.86%, and Solana—alone among the five largest cryptocurrencies—is down 14.26% year-to-date.

Chart 2: Daily U.S. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs Net Flow

Firi illustration

Last week proved equally difficult for U.S. crypto ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs experienced $1.21 billion in outflows while Ethereum ETFs saw $507.7 million in net outflows. On the flip side, the newly-launched Solana ETFs attracted $136.6 million in net inflows. Worth noting, though: since these Solana ETFs just launched, they do not yet hold much underlying capital that could potentially flow out.

A Number to Remember

20

During last week's selloff, the crypto market's Fear & Greed Index dropped as low as 20. This index ranges from 0 to 100, with lower values indicating extreme fear and higher values signaling extreme greed. A reading of 20 reflects substantial fear in the market following last week's decline—even more pronounced than the sharp weekend crash in mid-October.

On Our Radar

Looking ahead to this week:

  • Is the U.S. Shutdown Nearing an End? We are watching closely to see whether the U.S. government shutdown actually concludes this week, and equally important, how markets respond to a potential resolution.
  • Is Regulatory Clarity Finally Coming to the U.S.? Yesterday, the U.S. Senate released its long-anticipated crypto market structure bill, which would bring the industry one step closer to firmly establishing which federal agency oversees different aspects of the crypto market. This process will likely take months, but we are keeping close tabs on it—any progress on this front could prove positive for the market.
  • What Are the Latest U.S. Inflation Numbers Telling Us? On Friday, U.S. producer inflation data—which measures the selling prices received by domestic producers—for October is scheduled for release. Combined with the possible end to the U.S. shutdown, these inflation figures could significantly impact the crypto market. Economists currently expect a year-over-year increase of 2.6%.
Portrait of Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst at Firi.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 12/11/2025

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.